COLD PATTERN TO CONTINUE?

Well the Blizzard of 2010 can officially be declared a success for many.  We saw anywhere from 32"

HERE'S A RECAP FROM NWS IN MOUNT HOLLY : 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/display_snow_from_pns.php
 

THIS WAS MY FIRST CALL FROM THE EVENT.. 

WAYY LOW.. I ADMIT!  BUT WITH MODELS WHERE

THEY WERE... I HAD TO CHOOSE THE MOST 

CONSERVITIVE

ROUTE.  

OKAY!  ONTO THE NEXT STORM? OR JUST MORE COLD?

Just looking over the NAO trends it appears we stay negative over the next

several weeks with a climbs toward the positive mark.  What this suggests..

to me atleast.. will be a more zonal pacific flow that will take over.  This type of

pattern will allow for more of a SE ridge development (ala typical la nina behavior)

The SE ridge will eventually be a pattern changer itself allowing for the potential 

for record highs going into the middle of January.

NEG NAO = COOLER/COLDER START TO JANUARY.

The AO or Arctic Oscillation is similar to the NAO trends into January.  The AO is making a slow recovery from it's extremely negative phase and will jump towards more of a positive reading.

THE 8-10 day model run for the EURO and GFS confirm this thought nicely.  The hard blocking we saw earlier in the month over northern Canada and Russia looks to relax with a more progressive jet setting over the western pacific.  The biggest disagreements between the GFS v EURO is the ridge development over the Gulf of Alaska.  This is interesting.. seeing as it would suggest a positive PNA setup...

THE PNA trends have been very neutral at this point and the ensemble forecasts show a large split between a negative and positive phase.  Sure enough.. if the PNA switches to a more positive phase that would bring a digging trough over the center part of the nation.  A pattern like this would put a storm track south east of Chicago with many large snow storms for the midwest... Those details will continue to work themselves out.