Storm is now in the Medium Range.. MANY changes

GOOD MORNING!

Mighty Interesting run of the medium range models from last night.  The trend on basically all of them has to place the system more south and east then previous model runs from yesterday and the day before.

The idea on the table right now is that a trough will dig into the lower Tennessee valley by Friday night that will send moisture towards the north.  The arctic airmass in place now will remain there for many for Sat and Sat night before warm air will begin to pull northward.

ORIGINAL THOUGHT:

STORM WOULD RIDE UP THE APPALACHIAN MTNS PULLING +3-+4 C 850 MB TEMPS INTO ALL OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM WILL COOL DUE TO EVAPORATION COOLING

The new thought is coming into play as the models now want to shift height falls off the coast of the Carolina's by Saturday night with a surface low tracking further South and East (75-100mi than prior model runs).  

This does not mean I think the I95 cities will get a significant snow fall! The idea however is my rain vs snow line will have to shift further east should these model trends from the overnight be correct.

I am still believing we have a further east track than what the GFS says and my thoughts are more inline with the European model.  There is certainly indications that there will be overrunning precip that will fall as snow since dew points will be very dry and once the moisture pushes northward it will lift over the dry air producing a period of light snow.  As the storm moves north the middle layers will warm and we will see a long period of wintry weather west of 95 including at this point the Lehigh Valley and Pocono's with the Berks and Mohawk Valley staying an all snow event (short lived) mixing with sleet.  Again depending on whether a coastal low will take shape or if the primary low remains strong enough and rides west will make a HUGE difference in what the higher elevations see.  

Here's my First Call!  If the 12z runs later today continue a trend east.. we will shift the pink line into the major cities.  Pink line is a sleet snow mix.. with minor accumulations.. Blue shading is Heavy snows 3-6" widespread 6-12 local.  STILL VERY EARLY!  This is what I went on air with this morning!!

 Here's a look at the models. 

GFS -- Has consistently placed faith in this storm running west.  This should not be dismissed right away.  I have watched the GFS nail these storm tracks last month and the trend on a lot of these systems have been further west.

EUROPEAN- Also consistent with runs .. however, puts the idea of heights expanding towards the coast with cyclogensis occurring off VA beach with a quick coastal low poping .

CANADIAN: IN line with the GFS.. Further East shift from yesterday's mid day run.. More COLD air associated!

UKMET:  Coming into time range.. Perfect 50-50 low placement.. Nice Western Atlantic ridging.. Should see a Coastal Hugger .. Yet Further SE of the GFS and Canadian

NOGAPS:  Fantasy story... or Reality?  Super Cold air good blocking.. Strong storm with snow into the major cities for a period