It's All About the Pattern.. Yet.. Will it snow?

You may not find a pattern as great as the one we are seeing across the east coast.  As I have said in many of my blog postings the combination of a - NAO, strongly -AO, and Gulf of Alaskan low will produce a good storm track from the Mid Atlantic and southern New England.  

Below is the 500 mb Ensembles from the European model.  This has been the 3rd consecutive run showing very low heights from Hatteras to Buzzards Bay with a strong ridge over Hudson Bay.  Confluence will setup over northern New England while a storm will dip down the Tenn Valley making it's way for the Eastern Seaboard

While the Ensembles bring this low close to the coast.. The majority of the individual runs along with the operational run show an ENE moving storm will the placement of the 50-50 low and lack of western atlantic ridging providing an in close track towards the benchmark.

The biggest jump towards the snow train would be the UKMET which sees an established 50-50 low block with ample ridging on the backside.  This would favor a good track for major snows in the I95 cities to Boston...

 

 In case you want to see what a 50-50 low does to a storm and it's track.. this is the prime example.. Not the low off  Newfoundland ...It creates ridging over the western atlantic allow for a storm tracking NNE opposed to ENE....

 So I will end this with words from my weather mentor .... "Many Runs to Go" ..  --JOE CIOFFI