Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Triple Phased System?

Just looking back over at the DATA from the 12z EURO.. JUST WOW is all I really have to say in this posting.  One has to wonder how we can get a coastal storm to develop into a sub 970 low.. Well, the answer will come from not just the Subtropical Jet...or Pacific Jet.. BUT the combo of the two and the POLAR JET.  Yes, the more and more I look at the upper air configuration over southern Canada, the more I see a 3 jet phased system for TRIPLE PHASER! 
One could go back and look at all the storms from last year and not find a TRUE triple phased system.  The reason was the confluence and numerous polar vortex's that sat over northern New England essentially placing them in the SNOW HOLE or SNOW DROUGHT.  This go around.. IS A MUCH DIFFERENT STORY.  Let me show you graphically what I mean..


This is a shot off of the 12z EURO this afternoon.  Note the phase of the pacific and subtropical jet.. OK CHECK.  This is not a rare situation considering we have seen this before with many of the storms from last year.  But going back .. most of these storms went to around a 980- 975 at max even when the models were forecasting them.  


But things ARE much different this go around.. At least if this EURO solution pans out!


First, NOTE the placement of the ridge over central Canada.  This type of setup will send super cold air pouring down the front side of the ridge.  More importantly is a Polar vort max located over western Canada.  With this vort intensifying and with the amplification of the polar jet it will shoot the jet through northern Canada and begin to catch itself around the ridge.  The forcing will shoot SE from there..STAY WITH ME ON THIS....... AT the same time our storm with be developing off Hatteras.  AS long as this configuration doesn't slide east .. which I don't feel is likely considering the 50-50 low and ridging over the western atlantic .. I could easily see the polar jet tie into this storm.  






SO WHERE HAVE WE SEEN THIS BEFORE???




AHHH YES.. GOOD OL' 1993 .. THE MARKY MARK STORM .. I MEAN THE SUPER STORM OF 1993.  NOTE THE TRIPLE PHASE WHICH DROPPED THE PRESSURE TO 968 THE MAGIC NUMBER THE EURO IS PUTTING IN.






A SHOT OF THE 500 MB SETUP FROM 1993.







2 comments:

  1. Awesome post. From a fellow snow freak living in Tidewater, VA. Bring it...I remember all these storms and I have been dreaming of another. How exciting if this verifies.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thanks! This has me going deep into the meteorology to figure out why the EURO has a MONSTER storm and yet the GFS is NOT impressive!

    ReplyDelete