I Smell A Fight.. GFS VS NAM 500 MB!

Good Morning!  Let me start this blog by saying.. A nasty fight is brewing.. Similar to the one you saw in the movie "Anchor Man".. My favorite movie I may add!

Here is the 06z NAM vs GFS 500 MB 

First the NAM

 NOW the 6z GFS 

The biggest differences starting to be picked up is on the nam is the phasing.  Note on the GFS as it holds back the envelope of energy south of Bioxi while you see the northern jet digging through the TENN valley.  Compare that to the NAM model above which shows a LLJ influence from SW to NE with a near phase at hour 84 on the NAM.

The GFS wants to not only hold back energy but eject the northern jet faster not allowing for the phase of the two jets.  In fact it takes the storm wayyy the heck into the Gulf of Mexico .. YIKES

We now have the NAM, EURO, CANADIAN agreeing on a more phasing "isk" solution which will delay snow from Baltimore on North until Sunday Morning while allowing for a NEG tilted jet to develop.



Let's stay on the NAM for a second.....

The appearance of the 200mb ridge over the west is impressive.  There is NO way you are going to find a LONGWAVE ridge developed with a 50-50 low block and you will NOT find sharpening and deepening of the Trough.  

 Even the GFS agrees on this..! With a strong  jet streak coming right into the TENN Valley during the time the "said low" will be in the vicinity! This would be enough to lift any storm northbound!

SO WHAT DO YOU GET WHEN YOU PUT THESE PUZZLE PIECES TOGETHER.....

 

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