Big Storm.. Big Thoughts!

Hey all.. Just want to post some of my thoughts to everyone given where the models are and where I see them going.  First off.. It's been said numerous times that there would be a correction west with this storm.. and that has now become the case as we are now in the "favorable" period statistically for our GFS and EURO models. 

Ok.. Here's the look Sunday afternoon for both the GFS and EURO.

First, The GFS!  The look of the 500mb map (upper air) is much different than before.  For starts it has back off the idea of an intense upper level low over the pac NW.  Prior to these runs we saw a more intense ULL out west which essentially knocked down the pattern to more of a progressive and zonal flow.  This created less digging or sharpening of the trough in the east which is needed to further develop a storm.

The New 12z run now has latched onto a deeper trough in the east which would allow for a storm to digger further and develop faster off the mid atlantic coast. 

Next, is the blocking feature to keep the storm on the coast.  That blocking feature will come in the form of a split in a Polar vortex which will drift towards New Foundland.  There, it creates a BLOCK that will turn any storm from going ENE to NNE in true Nor'easter fashion.

*** Here's the 500 mb of the GFS.  Note the two feature.  500mb trough in the east... 50-50 low north east of that..and a better looking western US ridge. Below that is the surface depiction.  With these players in place the surface low will have nowhere to go but NNE by the time it's north of Atlantic city.

Onto the European 12 z model (((NEW)))
The European model started this trend towards a storm last night as it found all the correct upper air blocking features.  The european starts the low out east of Va Beach as a 1000mb storm.. Which is rather weak.  As the blocking towards the north continues to establish.. the storm wants to move ENE (moving away from land) .  As the blocking upstream at 50N 50W establishes and strengthens .. It will pull the storm on a NE..the NNE direction as it begins to bomb out.  While Snow will break out for the 95 cities.. The core of the highest QPF or SNOW will be offshore until the low is 75 miles SSE of Montauk, LI.  It's at this point I could see the core of heaviest snow pivot back towards Long Island, Possibly Monmouth County NJ, and nearing NYC metro.  It will snow CRAZY over all of CT into the Worcester hills towards Boston.  As the storm changes direction on a NNE fashion Precip will change to sleet possibly Rain over the CAPE, Boston, RI, eastern LI for a brief period cutting down on overall accumulations.  It will be at this time that the snow will intensify from I 91 in MA south to LI with winds becoming gusty.  Look, a sub 980 low's backside will not be a walk in the park..so I am under the assumption there could be a 40-60mph wind field at this point.  The storm will occlude a bit by Monday with bands continuing to Pivot onshore from Boston to LI (with everyone turning to snow at this point).

MY EARLY THOUGHTS:

SNOW RATIOS WILL BE VERY HIGH FOR PHILADELPHIA, NJ, WESTERN MA, WESTERN CT.
AS the low deepens it will bring a 10-1 to 15-1 ratio.. which is a fluff factor.  This factor taken in with assumed .50" qpf numbers could be a 6" plus snow from phill metro, some of the lehigh valley, into NW jersey.  12" snow will be assumed for everyone with the exception of a narrow band from central LI, Central CT, I 91 in MA towards the Worcester hills of 12" plus.  Now LOOK.. This is taken verbatium off what the MODELS want to do right now.  I have not seen a consistant lock on QPF data.. So These are assumptions based off of prior storms and how these type of storms wish to behave.  I will have a map out tomorrow morning at .. Mascoweather.blogspot.com and LWB.com.

GAME ON WEENIES!!