First Call on Sunday's Storm

No matter what.. This is going to be an extremely tough call! Right now we have a storm that is in it's infant stage of development.

Why the models are having problems..
- Typically with split flows with key phasing development we find model bias errors along with feedback issues.  You can see this especially when the low is in the gulf coast state by Saturday.. GFS and NAM feeds back the storm into the northern gulf waters and elongates the pocket of energy.  This is why it's late on a phase with the northern jet.
-The storm is over a sparse region where data is limited to ingest into the models. 
-GFS resolution NOT the BEST
-EURO resolution FAR more superior!


Why I will split the difference between the GFS and EURO
- First, I believe the GFS is missing the phase.  The phase is there but the storm is moving MUCH slower then the model is playing it.
- Second, The EURO has the phase but it's over phased IMO.  There is a blog I posted about a potential Triple phased system!  If this comes true.. then yes we a MONSTER low.  However, the new 00z Euro has backed on the intensity by 10MB now at a 975mb plus system off Hatteras which to me says there will only be a 2 stream phase.. Which is OK .. But not as destructive.
- Third.. QPF.  

***EURO has 1.25" plus for a 5 run consistency... (SEE BELOW)

GFS has a .50 for the coast with .10-.15" away.. Take a -5C 850 and do a little math.. You get a fluff factor of 15-1.  ALSO REMEMBER.. GFS has a model bias of under doing precip esp with southern storms.  We have a storm that put down a foot of rain over SOCAL... Yet the model projected 2-4" for that area....HMMMM

That being said I will play the lower end of 4-8" for Baltimore, DC, POSS PHILLY... Since I see a NE moving system I have brought the numbers down to 3-6 for interior New England (Prob regret it later) and a lollipop amount on the extreme coastline from Salisbury, MD to Eastern ME.  
*** I will most likely take over 6" from Hartford to Worcester on NE .. Especially if the storm bombs and pulls down a piece of energy to enhance snowfall.  A situation similar to what we saw this week off the cape.  If this situation pans out we could be in the 12" to 16" ball park. TBD !

GFS QPF AMOUNTS FROM 6Z THURSDAY

 

EURO QPF AMOUNTS FROM 

 

 

Will post later today with the 12z stuff !  Get your shop on!