A Storm or Not a Storm.. That is the question!

Do you hear that?  That is the towel being thrown in by many of the weather weenies across the Mid Atlantic and Southern New England!  Yes, the trend from last night has been an ENE moving storm as per the GFS operational model.  The EURO my model of choice continues to show a lack of blocking with a neutral to positively tilted jet.. WHICH YOU DO NOT WANT TO SEE IF YOU WANT A COASTAL STORM!

Since we do not have support from the operational models at this point.. Lets take a look at the ensembles to see if we can find a possible western trend in later runs.

This is the look from the 00z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS.. What I want you to take out of this is what's going on over the Northern Atlantic.  First the ensembles want to position a 50-50 type low with ridging developing over the Western Atlantic.

This in my opinion is the BIGGEST play we have right now.  With out the 50-50 block .. you will not get a negative tilted jet that would keep the storm inside the coast.. Creating our BIG STORM.

HOLD UP! Lets take the SAME hour and see what the EURO is doing.  Notice a BIG change.. First is the 50-50 low setup is....welll... NOT at the 50-50 position.  It tries to develop a low way east creating the ridging situation further into the central atlantic.  This type of scenario creates a positive tilted jet with a storm moving ENE.


NOTE number 2... Note the powerful upper level low coming into the west coast.  If this is correct.. That will disrupt the entire ridge v trough setup and would NOT allow for ridging on the back side of our storm.  This would weaken the sharpness of the trough in the east and NOT allow for the storm to gain latitude as it bombs off Hatteras.

The EURO SOLUTION ISN'T THE LONE MODEL...NOTE THE FOLLOWING:

UKMET.. CRUSHING ULL WEST COAST.. POS TILT.. STORM TRACK ENE...

THE CANADIAN HAS SOME INTERESTING THINGS.. FIRST YES, IT'S A RUSHING ULL ON THE WEST COAST.. YES IT DISRUPTS  ANY KIND OF A DIGGING STORM.. BUT!! BUT!! IT DOES HAVE A NEG TILTED JET THAT WOULD SUGGEST A FAST DEVELOPING STORM (MILLER B'ISH) AND A NEW ENGLAND SNOW STORM!

So the deal is this.. We have time.. Correction Time I will call it.. and I am not ready to say.. NO SNOW FOR YOU .. until the fat lady sings or the GFS, EURO, and CANADIAN come in with a more in sync type of Upper Air alignment.