Storm Update...Even Colder Next Week!!

1ST THE WEEKEND STORM!

I have really not changed much of my thinking in regards to the storm this weekend.  
* STORM WILL GO TO A SUB 990 STORM OVER LAND DURING SUNDAY MORNING
* ICE STORM ANTICIPATED FOR I 81 IN MD, I 99 IN PA ALTOONA, BEDFORD, TO ELK STATE FOREST..NORTH TO BINGHAMPTON.
*BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR DEEP CREEK, MD, WESTERN BLUE RIDGE MTNS, JOHNSTOWN PA- PITTSBURGH, PA , WEST OF 87 IN NYS INTO THE GREEN MTNS IN VT.  WINDS 60 PLUS...ROADS OUT OF COMMISSION  FOR A TIME!
* HEAVY RAIN FOR PHILLY , BALTIMORE, NYC, BOSTON, CHANGING TO SNOW BRIEFLY 
 

NEXT .. THE COLD!!

Remember our talk about the AO.. Arctic Oscillation!  The deal is .. It is not until the AO can achieve some grounds to more of a positive level before the cold air is shut down. 

First note the fact the model has been UNABLE to keep up with the AO through much of this month.  The ensembles all suggest a continued and turning deeply NEGATIVE AO index which essentially means more brutal attacks of cold air over the northern US .

The 8-10 day forecast from both the EURO and GFS are interesting.  
 ** First .. Let it be known the EURO has out performed the GFS in the cold air development from weeks ago.  I think both maps should be taken seriously seeing as a fully developed west based NAO is featured along with a 50-50 low development.  The evidence of this is associated with the massive central Canadian Ridging going into the next 10 day's (depicted by the purple coloring).  So with a - NAO development coupled with a strongly negative AO ..WE will see major cold over more than 60% of the US through the rest of this month. 

CAN WE GET SNOW?

Let this be known!  LA nina's favor areas well away from the coast for crippling snow storms.  The situation this weekend will test whether we see a strong inland runner or if this LA nina and pattern could produce late coastal development for a significant New England snow storm. 

If it's not this storm.. It will be another.

I like what the EURO does going out past this weekend...
First, It holds back energy further south and west then where this weekends storm will be.  However, note the heights building off the South Atlantic coastline.  The energy pocket (or vort max) will further develop the SE ridge turning the storm north bound before coastal development could take over.  However, should we be able to find a trend of the quasi 50-50 low to the North ;there maybe a suppression of the South East ridge allowing for a storm to go off shore.