It's Cold .. Check.. What about a Storm? Half check!

The Pattern is certaintly there for a storm to roar up the east coast.  This type of pattern has shades of the early 90's La nina type years which produced quick hitting storms with rapid development in a Miller B fashion!  

In case you folks don't know what a Miller B is vs Miller A.

Here's the deal.
Miller A events are most common in El NINA type patterns when you have a vigorous Southern Jet stream.  Storm originate in the Gulf of Mexico and track up the entire eastern seaboard usually tracking ENE when they hit the bench mark ( 40/50)

Miller B events are the in between.  The can originate from Hatteras to as far north at Atlantic City.  These events create rain on the coastal plain while bring heavy snows for areas well west of I 95 including Lehigh Valley, Pocono's, NW NJ, Hudson Valley, Berkshire MTNS, Green and White MTNS, Mohawk Valley.  

Remember the saying.. Too cold to snow.. Well, Unfortantly that seems to be the case in the short term.  The image below is a map of the upper levels and essentially is the storm track for any and all systems this week.  While we will see a retrograding low over extreme N. MAINE .. There appears to remain a rift between the Northern Stream and Southern Stream jet's which will not allow for phasement to occur.  Phasing of the jets will produce the snows we want (some of us want).

 

However, later this weekend into early next week.... Things get mighty interesting.  As the NAO begins to flex more east based it allows for the 50-50 to open up producing more ridging over the western Atlantic.  This type of setup allows for the southern and northern jet to phase together.  However, there maybe a ton more ridging that would be welcomed pulling this low on the coast creating an "inland runner" these types of storms ride as far north as MD/PA border before developing a coastal low.  As per the EURO panel below that seems to be the case.

 

THEN THE EURO REALLY GETS CRANKING WITH A WRAPPED UP SUB 990 LOW OFF ACY AND LGA! 

OKAY.. LETS SNIFF THROUGH THIS PILE OF MODEL DEBRIS. 


It is very encouraging to see the European model go crazy in it's medium range.. The European statistically does the best in this time period.. What is interesting is how the upper level's behave going into next week.  


I will leave you with this last image... for now... This is the Water Vapor image from off BAJA ... Note the amount of moisture and energy sitting off the coast along with the Southern Jet stream!  Yup, That has to go somewhere!  So the EURO certainty sees it!