Merry Christmas to everyone out there...
Yes, I saw yesterday's 12z runs.. and Yes, many threw in the towell rather quickly. There appears to be less in the way of phasing which the GFS was right on with from the start. There has been a few fluctuations in the track on the 00z GFS and 06z GFS.. While the 0z actually brought a ton more moisture back into the 95 stretch.. the 6z lowered it once again by .10-.15 which would be a 3-4" more. I am still going to take the QPF from the 00z GFS and 00z Euro as a base for my Second Call.
First we take a look at the QPF from the GFS model.. There still remains a .50-.75 from VA Beach through Western mass with 1.00+ from LI towards the cape with the cape coming close to 1.50.
The EURO actually is less that the GFS print from the 00z run.. however, in sync with the new 6z run...
FLUFF FACTOR WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE!
WITH A DEEPLY NEG TROUGH situated over the east there will be above normal snowfall ratios.
With deeply moisture latent storms you would find an 6-1 - 8-1 ratio at a 992 mb depth.. 10-1 if the storm falls to a sub 990 and so forth..
The ratios will become rather huge for southern new england.
Note the GFS 850 mb ..
The 850's have temperatures of -5 -6 from western MD through western VT with the coast nearing -3.
BY the time the storm is a wrapped up low east of Long Island the numbers have crashed to --6 to -8 with the coast nearing -6. It's still snowing in NJ to MA at this point as cold air is rushing through the column.
What does this all mean.
I think most areas will see a 12:1 - 15:1 snow ratio on average during precipitation time...
So If you have a .25 QPF readout (on the dry GFS model) you will average 3-4" of snow..Naturally it will be greatest for western CT, Western MA, and into central VT and NH.
SO a .25 QPF would be around 5" for these areas.
The CAPE will be the exception to the rule. I still expect a 10:1 to 11:1 fluff factor.. So to split the difference on the EURO and GFS we will say a safe 1.00 of liquid which would equate to a 10-12" storm
SEE THE GFS FOR 850 NUMBERS!
SO HERE'S THE REVISED CALL
I still feel east of 95 in MD and DE see's on average 3" of snow.. with at max 6". Best chances of 6" would be from Salisbury, MD To SandyHook, NJ. NYC will be on the fence of a 3" to 6" amount given the location and the direction of the storm which is going ENE.
From the Sagtikos PKWY on east 6-8" of snow as we will have some banding features pushing in after the initial dumping of front end snow. There could be a few spots over the twin forks of nearing if not surpassing 8"
For Southern New england. Take a line from I395 in CT 6-8" will be the general rule and east of that 8-14 INCH.
The 14 inch will be tough to nail down. A lot will come together. Especially the track being very KEY. I used last weekends storm for the cape as a reference point. Unfortunately if I reference that storm too much.. that 14 would actually be a 20-24" amount. Given the track of the storm.. Motion and intensity.. I am confident on a 14" storm for Plymouth, Bristol, Dukes, and Nantucket counties in eastern MA to the south eastern shore of ME.
I am in complete agreement with your call, but I still have a weird feeling this thing might be a dumper for SE VA/ NE NC. Are you on FB?
ReplyDeleteMarlene Charbonneau