METEOROLOGIST MIKE MASCO: Complex Pattern..Complex Storm(s)

Yet another complex pattern will take shape going into this week. Temperatures over the northern plains are already reflecting this change..NOW all we need is something to pull this cold air down over the lower 48.

That something.. Will be an Alberta Clipper!

The EURO has a strong wrapped up low pulling through the lakes by Early Friday morning..

The temperature profile on the EURO is right on in my opinion. The EURO has -20--30 C temperatures associated with the cold air advection while temperatures are nearing 0 on the front end where warm air advection will begin to occur.

THE 00z GFS shows very good lift ahead of the system with a decent amount of moisture ahead of the system. This clash with some warm air advecting ahead of the system looks to pop enough juice ahead of the system to put down a 1-3 with 2-4" elevation snows for everyone north of the Lehigh Valley in PA to the Green MTNS in VT.

WHAT HAPPENS BEYOND THIS CLIPPER?

The longer range (going into next weekend) is going to be very challenging. The initially thinking on my end will be coastal snows from Long Island to Portland with a significant snowfall for RH, E. Mass, E NH, and E ME. There could be enough lift to I 87 in NYS to produce some accumulating snows...That however, is still trying to be worked out.
THE GFS HAS A VERY STRONG LOW WRAPPED UP OFF BOX AS A SUB 963MB LOW. Now I think the GFS is not too far off on the strength of this low. Reason being is the upper air support associated with this low. First off the model consensus will be a 985mb low over the lakes. A pressure of 985 without southern jet stream influence is rather strong enough..add the southern energy couple with the fact you will have a near stalled system which will further the bombogenesis off the coast and you will easily get a sub 970 mb low. This storm actually may come close to super-bombogenesis with heights dropping 5mb per hour for a period. Not out of the realm of possibility.

The EURO is also in the GFS camp however, is further outside the benchmark yet has the intensity locked in. We should also address the developing ridge the EURO is showing west of the storm. I think the correction will be west on the EURO later today given the strength of the ridge. The EURO almost tucks the low too far east to make sense given the upper air pattern that it is showing. Lets see how the 12z handle that.