COLD PATTERN TO CONTINUE?

Well the Blizzard of 2010 can officially be declared a success for many.  We saw anywhere from 32"

HERE'S A RECAP FROM NWS IN MOUNT HOLLY : 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/display_snow_from_pns.php
 

THIS WAS MY FIRST CALL FROM THE EVENT.. 

WAYY LOW.. I ADMIT!  BUT WITH MODELS WHERE

THEY WERE... I HAD TO CHOOSE THE MOST 

CONSERVITIVE

ROUTE.  

OKAY!  ONTO THE NEXT STORM? OR JUST MORE COLD?

Just looking over the NAO trends it appears we stay negative over the next

several weeks with a climbs toward the positive mark.  What this suggests..

to me atleast.. will be a more zonal pacific flow that will take over.  This type of

pattern will allow for more of a SE ridge development (ala typical la nina behavior)

The SE ridge will eventually be a pattern changer itself allowing for the potential 

for record highs going into the middle of January.

NEG NAO = COOLER/COLDER START TO JANUARY.

The AO or Arctic Oscillation is similar to the NAO trends into January.  The AO is making a slow recovery from it's extremely negative phase and will jump towards more of a positive reading.

THE 8-10 day model run for the EURO and GFS confirm this thought nicely.  The hard blocking we saw earlier in the month over northern Canada and Russia looks to relax with a more progressive jet setting over the western pacific.  The biggest disagreements between the GFS v EURO is the ridge development over the Gulf of Alaska.  This is interesting.. seeing as it would suggest a positive PNA setup...

THE PNA trends have been very neutral at this point and the ensemble forecasts show a large split between a negative and positive phase.  Sure enough.. if the PNA switches to a more positive phase that would bring a digging trough over the center part of the nation.  A pattern like this would put a storm track south east of Chicago with many large snow storms for the midwest... Those details will continue to work themselves out.

Masco's Second Call (Few Changes)

Merry Christmas to everyone out there... 

Yes, I saw yesterday's 12z runs.. and Yes, many threw in the towell rather quickly.  There appears to be less in the way of phasing which the GFS was right on with from the start.  There has been a few fluctuations in the track on the 00z GFS and 06z GFS.. While the 0z actually brought a ton more moisture back into the 95 stretch.. the 6z lowered it once again by .10-.15 which would be a 3-4" more.  I am still going to take  the QPF from the 00z GFS and 00z Euro as a base for my Second Call.

First we take a look at the QPF from the GFS model.. There still remains a .50-.75 from VA Beach through Western mass with 1.00+ from LI towards the cape with the cape coming close to 1.50.

The EURO actually is less that the GFS print from the 00z run.. however, in sync with the new 6z run... 

FLUFF FACTOR WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE!

WITH A DEEPLY NEG TROUGH situated over the east there will be above normal snowfall ratios.

With deeply moisture latent storms you would find an 6-1  -  8-1 ratio at a 992 mb depth.. 10-1 if the storm falls to a sub 990 and so forth..


The ratios will become rather huge for southern new england.


Note the GFS 850 mb ..


The 850's have temperatures of -5 -6 from western MD through western VT with the coast nearing -3.  

BY the time the storm is a wrapped up low east of Long Island the numbers have crashed to --6 to -8 with the coast nearing -6.  It's still snowing in NJ to MA at this point as cold air is rushing through the column.  


What does this all mean.


I think most areas will see a 12:1 - 15:1 snow ratio on average during precipitation time...

So If you have a .25 QPF readout (on the dry GFS model)  you will average 3-4" of snow..Naturally it will be greatest for western CT, Western MA, and into central VT and NH.

SO a .25 QPF would be around 5" for these areas.


The CAPE will be the exception to the rule.  I still expect a 10:1 to 11:1 fluff factor.. So to split the difference on the EURO and GFS we will say a safe 1.00 of liquid which would equate to a 10-12" storm




 SEE THE GFS FOR 850 NUMBERS!

SO HERE'S THE REVISED CALL

I still feel east of 95 in MD and DE see's on average 3" of snow.. with at max 6".  Best chances of 6" would be from Salisbury, MD To SandyHook, NJ.  NYC will be on the fence of a 3" to 6" amount given the location and the direction of the storm which is going ENE.  

From the Sagtikos PKWY on east 6-8" of snow as we will have some banding features pushing in after the initial dumping of front end snow.  There could be a few spots over the twin forks of nearing if not surpassing 8"

For Southern New england.  Take a line from I395 in CT 6-8" will be the general rule and east of that 8-14 INCH.

The 14 inch will be tough to nail down.  A lot will come together. Especially the track being very KEY.  I used last weekends storm for the cape as a reference point.  Unfortunately if I reference that storm too much.. that 14 would actually be a 20-24" amount.  Given the track of the storm.. Motion and intensity.. I am confident on a 14" storm for Plymouth, Bristol, Dukes, and Nantucket counties in eastern MA to the south eastern shore of ME. 

 

First Call on Sunday's Storm

No matter what.. This is going to be an extremely tough call! Right now we have a storm that is in it's infant stage of development.

Why the models are having problems..
- Typically with split flows with key phasing development we find model bias errors along with feedback issues.  You can see this especially when the low is in the gulf coast state by Saturday.. GFS and NAM feeds back the storm into the northern gulf waters and elongates the pocket of energy.  This is why it's late on a phase with the northern jet.
-The storm is over a sparse region where data is limited to ingest into the models. 
-GFS resolution NOT the BEST
-EURO resolution FAR more superior!


Why I will split the difference between the GFS and EURO
- First, I believe the GFS is missing the phase.  The phase is there but the storm is moving MUCH slower then the model is playing it.
- Second, The EURO has the phase but it's over phased IMO.  There is a blog I posted about a potential Triple phased system!  If this comes true.. then yes we a MONSTER low.  However, the new 00z Euro has backed on the intensity by 10MB now at a 975mb plus system off Hatteras which to me says there will only be a 2 stream phase.. Which is OK .. But not as destructive.
- Third.. QPF.  

***EURO has 1.25" plus for a 5 run consistency... (SEE BELOW)

GFS has a .50 for the coast with .10-.15" away.. Take a -5C 850 and do a little math.. You get a fluff factor of 15-1.  ALSO REMEMBER.. GFS has a model bias of under doing precip esp with southern storms.  We have a storm that put down a foot of rain over SOCAL... Yet the model projected 2-4" for that area....HMMMM

That being said I will play the lower end of 4-8" for Baltimore, DC, POSS PHILLY... Since I see a NE moving system I have brought the numbers down to 3-6 for interior New England (Prob regret it later) and a lollipop amount on the extreme coastline from Salisbury, MD to Eastern ME.  
*** I will most likely take over 6" from Hartford to Worcester on NE .. Especially if the storm bombs and pulls down a piece of energy to enhance snowfall.  A situation similar to what we saw this week off the cape.  If this situation pans out we could be in the 12" to 16" ball park. TBD !

GFS QPF AMOUNTS FROM 6Z THURSDAY

 

EURO QPF AMOUNTS FROM 

 

 

Will post later today with the 12z stuff !  Get your shop on! 

Triple Phased System?

Just looking back over at the DATA from the 12z EURO.. JUST WOW is all I really have to say in this posting.  One has to wonder how we can get a coastal storm to develop into a sub 970 low.. Well, the answer will come from not just the Subtropical Jet...or Pacific Jet.. BUT the combo of the two and the POLAR JET.  Yes, the more and more I look at the upper air configuration over southern Canada, the more I see a 3 jet phased system for TRIPLE PHASER! 
One could go back and look at all the storms from last year and not find a TRUE triple phased system.  The reason was the confluence and numerous polar vortex's that sat over northern New England essentially placing them in the SNOW HOLE or SNOW DROUGHT.  This go around.. IS A MUCH DIFFERENT STORY.  Let me show you graphically what I mean..


This is a shot off of the 12z EURO this afternoon.  Note the phase of the pacific and subtropical jet.. OK CHECK.  This is not a rare situation considering we have seen this before with many of the storms from last year.  But going back .. most of these storms went to around a 980- 975 at max even when the models were forecasting them.  


But things ARE much different this go around.. At least if this EURO solution pans out!


First, NOTE the placement of the ridge over central Canada.  This type of setup will send super cold air pouring down the front side of the ridge.  More importantly is a Polar vort max located over western Canada.  With this vort intensifying and with the amplification of the polar jet it will shoot the jet through northern Canada and begin to catch itself around the ridge.  The forcing will shoot SE from there..STAY WITH ME ON THIS....... AT the same time our storm with be developing off Hatteras.  AS long as this configuration doesn't slide east .. which I don't feel is likely considering the 50-50 low and ridging over the western atlantic .. I could easily see the polar jet tie into this storm.  

SO WHERE HAVE WE SEEN THIS BEFORE???

AHHH YES.. GOOD OL' 1993 .. THE MARKY MARK STORM .. I MEAN THE SUPER STORM OF 1993.  NOTE THE TRIPLE PHASE WHICH DROPPED THE PRESSURE TO 968 THE MAGIC NUMBER THE EURO IS PUTTING IN.

A SHOT OF THE 500 MB SETUP FROM 1993.

I Smell A Fight.. GFS VS NAM 500 MB!

Good Morning!  Let me start this blog by saying.. A nasty fight is brewing.. Similar to the one you saw in the movie "Anchor Man".. My favorite movie I may add!

Here is the 06z NAM vs GFS 500 MB 

First the NAM

 NOW the 6z GFS 

The biggest differences starting to be picked up is on the nam is the phasing.  Note on the GFS as it holds back the envelope of energy south of Bioxi while you see the northern jet digging through the TENN valley.  Compare that to the NAM model above which shows a LLJ influence from SW to NE with a near phase at hour 84 on the NAM.

The GFS wants to not only hold back energy but eject the northern jet faster not allowing for the phase of the two jets.  In fact it takes the storm wayyy the heck into the Gulf of Mexico .. YIKES

We now have the NAM, EURO, CANADIAN agreeing on a more phasing "isk" solution which will delay snow from Baltimore on North until Sunday Morning while allowing for a NEG tilted jet to develop.



Let's stay on the NAM for a second.....

The appearance of the 200mb ridge over the west is impressive.  There is NO way you are going to find a LONGWAVE ridge developed with a 50-50 low block and you will NOT find sharpening and deepening of the Trough.  

 Even the GFS agrees on this..! With a strong  jet streak coming right into the TENN Valley during the time the "said low" will be in the vicinity! This would be enough to lift any storm northbound!

SO WHAT DO YOU GET WHEN YOU PUT THESE PUZZLE PIECES TOGETHER.....

 

NEW BLOG AT 11AM

EURO Shows A BOMB!

Wow!  The European forecast model shows a mean looking storm off the Jersey shore heading into late weekend and early next week.  Here's the model below for you to check out.

The NOGAPS is also something to keep an eye on... This had the weekend storm nailed down... But has a different track scenario bringing a MAJOR storm off shore then hooking it closer to Cape Cod... Eerily similar to the situation we saw pan out the with the current storm in New England.

and Finally the GEM model showing a massive coastal hugger with Sleet and Rain far inland..

So the update is we HAVE A STORM.. The farthest east the models take it still gives snows for Boston while the furthest west it takes it brings a major rain and sleet storm for many.  There so far hasn't been an offshore track like we saw with last weekends storm.  Lets see how the new 12z runs do in regards to this storm.

HYPE v INFORMING.. DAY AFTER XMAS STORM?

2-5" INCH OF SNOW REPORTED FROM WAREHAM TO PTOWN ON EAST OVER EASTERN MA.. YUP.. THAT'S WHAT A 200MILE OFF THE COAST TRACKING STORM WILL PRODUCE.

There is one point I wish to address before I go into next weekends storm.  The subject is on HYPE.  I received an email saying I had hyped today's storm and should be ashamed.  There is a TON of inaccuracy in  that statement.  First off you come here, liveweatherblogs.com, and other sites to see what could be on the table.  I introduce idea's and possible solutions and tell you what the model shows verbatim.  Many have read me for a while.. some are just beginning.. So here's what you should know before slamming me over "Hype".

First Call.... My first Call post will start the sequence of a 3 step forecast leading into an event.  First calls are put out around 72+ hours prior to an event.  I will list risk area's with generalized accumulation and Ptype Ideas.  This will get you understanding the "beast" so to speak and what to watch for over the next few day's.

Second Call.. Is a lock down of any changes that are being made in my first call.  This is a 36-48 hour call from me.

Last Call... Usually follows everything in the 2nd call.. Minor changes are made and are usually in respect to timing.

So that being said.  The last storm NEVER got a first call from me.  There was zero consistency which spelled out an impossible First call idea.  I left the models to go to work and made it known by Thursday leading into the storm that I was pulling the plug and that there wouldn't be a storm!  So that's that.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ok .. Let's talk about this weekends storm.  Here's the NEW players on the field.  Speaking of fields.. What an Eagles game.. Love that Desean Jackson!

The BIGGEST difference we have going into this storm is a monster low that will setup over the Gulf of Alaska.  If you compare last weekends storm to this one you will note that the pacific block is MUCH further NORTH than last weekend.  WE look at this upper level low feature because it dictates what kind of ridging vs troughing will occur down stream.  So for example we have a sub 960  ULL over GOA.  That produces a monster trough over the eastern Pacific which will setup massive height falls on one side while stronger ridging will exist over the center of the country. Ridging out west is important in that it will then produce stronger troughing over the East.  Think of a roller coast with these wild swings UP and DOWN..DOWN and UP.. Yup, Getting ILL thinking about it.  

The reason you want this in play is to allow for more connection between the jet streams which would essentially produce the Phase needed to allow for a storm to "hook" up the coast.  Phase also pump enough low level jet support coupled with a jet max producing a STRONGER system.. Another KEY to coastal development.

The GFS is now on it's 3rd run in a row of a storm developing off the coast early Sunday morning.  I like what I am seeing with the pattern, phase, and features in the Pacific.  

The EURO goes a step beyond the GFS and puts out a MONSTER sub 975 low at the Benchmark by Sunday Afternoon.  This suggests a massive snow event taken verbatim off the model (which isn't saying much since we saw the same solution as last weekend).  The only thing we see differently is a TRENDDDD .  As I have always said in the past.. A term stolen from my surfing Buddy...James Gregorio; News 12 NJ's weather kid/AM Meteorologist.. "Let the TREND be your FRIEND" .. And SURE enough.. The EURO has locked on a solution for 3 plus runs! 

EURO

The ONLY other important model in my eyes that I watch for Trends and solutions is the Canadian Model.. GEM.  The 12z Run is a TAD concerning because it has all the MAJOR players of the EURO and GFS MINUS a Block at 50N-50W.  We spoke about the 50-50 LOW and placement being key to the evolution of a coastal tracking storm.  Well, there lacks a 50-50 low which would essentially put the Jet on a SW NE positioning.  This ultimantly would suggest an ENE moving system ( IE fishy storm or out to sea solution).  Does the GEM have a hiccup in the way it's handling the dynamics?  Possible!  But only future runs would tell it's story

GEM

NEW UPDATE TOMORROW AT 6AM and 1130AM.  

12z is Back on

The GFS 12z new run is game for a late weekend storm.. HMMM ... We've seen this before!

Quick Thought

Plug is about to be pulled.. The modeling solution seems to lock onto the idea there will be NO phasing of the jets thus NO storm... 12z will confirm the trend ...

Big Storm.. Big Thoughts!

Hey all.. Just want to post some of my thoughts to everyone given where the models are and where I see them going.  First off.. It's been said numerous times that there would be a correction west with this storm.. and that has now become the case as we are now in the "favorable" period statistically for our GFS and EURO models. 

Ok.. Here's the look Sunday afternoon for both the GFS and EURO.

First, The GFS!  The look of the 500mb map (upper air) is much different than before.  For starts it has back off the idea of an intense upper level low over the pac NW.  Prior to these runs we saw a more intense ULL out west which essentially knocked down the pattern to more of a progressive and zonal flow.  This created less digging or sharpening of the trough in the east which is needed to further develop a storm.

The New 12z run now has latched onto a deeper trough in the east which would allow for a storm to digger further and develop faster off the mid atlantic coast. 

Next, is the blocking feature to keep the storm on the coast.  That blocking feature will come in the form of a split in a Polar vortex which will drift towards New Foundland.  There, it creates a BLOCK that will turn any storm from going ENE to NNE in true Nor'easter fashion.

*** Here's the 500 mb of the GFS.  Note the two feature.  500mb trough in the east... 50-50 low north east of that..and a better looking western US ridge. Below that is the surface depiction.  With these players in place the surface low will have nowhere to go but NNE by the time it's north of Atlantic city.

Onto the European 12 z model (((NEW)))
The European model started this trend towards a storm last night as it found all the correct upper air blocking features.  The european starts the low out east of Va Beach as a 1000mb storm.. Which is rather weak.  As the blocking towards the north continues to establish.. the storm wants to move ENE (moving away from land) .  As the blocking upstream at 50N 50W establishes and strengthens .. It will pull the storm on a NE..the NNE direction as it begins to bomb out.  While Snow will break out for the 95 cities.. The core of the highest QPF or SNOW will be offshore until the low is 75 miles SSE of Montauk, LI.  It's at this point I could see the core of heaviest snow pivot back towards Long Island, Possibly Monmouth County NJ, and nearing NYC metro.  It will snow CRAZY over all of CT into the Worcester hills towards Boston.  As the storm changes direction on a NNE fashion Precip will change to sleet possibly Rain over the CAPE, Boston, RI, eastern LI for a brief period cutting down on overall accumulations.  It will be at this time that the snow will intensify from I 91 in MA south to LI with winds becoming gusty.  Look, a sub 980 low's backside will not be a walk in the park..so I am under the assumption there could be a 40-60mph wind field at this point.  The storm will occlude a bit by Monday with bands continuing to Pivot onshore from Boston to LI (with everyone turning to snow at this point).

MY EARLY THOUGHTS:

SNOW RATIOS WILL BE VERY HIGH FOR PHILADELPHIA, NJ, WESTERN MA, WESTERN CT.
AS the low deepens it will bring a 10-1 to 15-1 ratio.. which is a fluff factor.  This factor taken in with assumed .50" qpf numbers could be a 6" plus snow from phill metro, some of the lehigh valley, into NW jersey.  12" snow will be assumed for everyone with the exception of a narrow band from central LI, Central CT, I 91 in MA towards the Worcester hills of 12" plus.  Now LOOK.. This is taken verbatium off what the MODELS want to do right now.  I have not seen a consistant lock on QPF data.. So These are assumptions based off of prior storms and how these type of storms wish to behave.  I will have a map out tomorrow morning at .. Mascoweather.blogspot.com and LWB.com.

GAME ON WEENIES!!

NEW GFS

Coming in now... Stand by!! BIG RUN TIME! 

Correction West on the GFS has begun.  First the ULL on the west coast will hold back which will allow for a sharper Trough on the east coast.. How west does this correct is still out there.. But it's good to see the GFS coming back around!

EURO GOES BIG.. GFS GOES AWAY

Model flipping around is driving me nuts!  It's 4am in the weather office and which way do I go with this storm?
The European .. The Model that said NO way in HELL .. has turned back west with a monster low heading up the coast this weekend... While the GFS which said ...BIG STORM; BIG SNOW.. now says NOPE not happening.  Well my spin is the correction west has begun.. Is the EURO a locked player?  Time will tell... Longer blog coming soon!

A Storm or Not a Storm.. That is the question!

Do you hear that?  That is the towel being thrown in by many of the weather weenies across the Mid Atlantic and Southern New England!  Yes, the trend from last night has been an ENE moving storm as per the GFS operational model.  The EURO my model of choice continues to show a lack of blocking with a neutral to positively tilted jet.. WHICH YOU DO NOT WANT TO SEE IF YOU WANT A COASTAL STORM!

Since we do not have support from the operational models at this point.. Lets take a look at the ensembles to see if we can find a possible western trend in later runs.

This is the look from the 00z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS.. What I want you to take out of this is what's going on over the Northern Atlantic.  First the ensembles want to position a 50-50 type low with ridging developing over the Western Atlantic.

This in my opinion is the BIGGEST play we have right now.  With out the 50-50 block .. you will not get a negative tilted jet that would keep the storm inside the coast.. Creating our BIG STORM.

HOLD UP! Lets take the SAME hour and see what the EURO is doing.  Notice a BIG change.. First is the 50-50 low setup is....welll... NOT at the 50-50 position.  It tries to develop a low way east creating the ridging situation further into the central atlantic.  This type of scenario creates a positive tilted jet with a storm moving ENE.


NOTE number 2... Note the powerful upper level low coming into the west coast.  If this is correct.. That will disrupt the entire ridge v trough setup and would NOT allow for ridging on the back side of our storm.  This would weaken the sharpness of the trough in the east and NOT allow for the storm to gain latitude as it bombs off Hatteras.

The EURO SOLUTION ISN'T THE LONE MODEL...NOTE THE FOLLOWING:

UKMET.. CRUSHING ULL WEST COAST.. POS TILT.. STORM TRACK ENE...

THE CANADIAN HAS SOME INTERESTING THINGS.. FIRST YES, IT'S A RUSHING ULL ON THE WEST COAST.. YES IT DISRUPTS  ANY KIND OF A DIGGING STORM.. BUT!! BUT!! IT DOES HAVE A NEG TILTED JET THAT WOULD SUGGEST A FAST DEVELOPING STORM (MILLER B'ISH) AND A NEW ENGLAND SNOW STORM!

So the deal is this.. We have time.. Correction Time I will call it.. and I am not ready to say.. NO SNOW FOR YOU .. until the fat lady sings or the GFS, EURO, and CANADIAN come in with a more in sync type of Upper Air alignment.

Sure the Euro Goes out to sea.. BUT!

THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOTHING TO SNEEZE ABOUT!

I THINK WE SEE A CORRECTION WEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR A COASTAL STORM.

EVEN THE 6-10 DAY DOESN'T GIVE UP HOPE FOR FUTURE STORMS TO BOMB OUT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC

THE GFS HAS THE CORRECT UPPER AIR SOLUTION.. WITH A 50-50 LOW DEVELOPING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE.  LOOKS LIKE THE TROUGH WILL GO NEGATIVELY TILTED BY SATURDAY.  THIS HAS A MILLER B'ISK SYSTEM WRITTEN ALL OVER IT.

MILLER B= HEAVIEST SNOW FROM NYC TO BOSTON

It's All About the Pattern.. Yet.. Will it snow?

You may not find a pattern as great as the one we are seeing across the east coast.  As I have said in many of my blog postings the combination of a - NAO, strongly -AO, and Gulf of Alaskan low will produce a good storm track from the Mid Atlantic and southern New England.  

Below is the 500 mb Ensembles from the European model.  This has been the 3rd consecutive run showing very low heights from Hatteras to Buzzards Bay with a strong ridge over Hudson Bay.  Confluence will setup over northern New England while a storm will dip down the Tenn Valley making it's way for the Eastern Seaboard

While the Ensembles bring this low close to the coast.. The majority of the individual runs along with the operational run show an ENE moving storm will the placement of the 50-50 low and lack of western atlantic ridging providing an in close track towards the benchmark.

The biggest jump towards the snow train would be the UKMET which sees an established 50-50 low block with ample ridging on the backside.  This would favor a good track for major snows in the I95 cities to Boston...

 

 In case you want to see what a 50-50 low does to a storm and it's track.. this is the prime example.. Not the low off  Newfoundland ...It creates ridging over the western atlantic allow for a storm tracking NNE opposed to ENE....

 So I will end this with words from my weather mentor .... "Many Runs to Go" ..  --JOE CIOFFI

False Hopes or the Real thing?

Here we go again.. Yet another week with a storm looming in the distance of a possible snowstorm for someone on the eastern seaboard. 

This has gotten out of hand in my opinion ...but hey, it's weather.. and thats why I have a job.
I said this in late august..  This would be the year of major disapointment!  The models in general have a rough time developing storms and sniffing out patterns inside a La NINA year.  This years La NINA is very complex and with extremely strong arctic signals coupled with pacific LA Nina conditions the models as a whole are on overload mode.

The GFS 00z model run from last nigh most certainty has gotten my attention.  Like I said last week when this storm appeared to make a move towards the west of the east coast.. The pattern following it may support a BIGGER storm.  Well, the GFS has jumped on this idea in a big way. 

Not only is the GFS "game" so to speak.. But the European's last night run on height anomalies indicate much lower heights over the mid Atlantic and North East heading into the weekend.  What this says to me is that the majority of the Ensemble runs of the EURO will produce some sort of low within a 100 mile radius of the center of this purple blob.  That's not saying much but the threat of a storm is certainly much further east than say the Midwest or northern plains!

SO now we play the wait game...  Tom Petty said it best:  "The Waiting is the Hardest Part"

Storm Update...Even Colder Next Week!!

1ST THE WEEKEND STORM!

I have really not changed much of my thinking in regards to the storm this weekend.  
* STORM WILL GO TO A SUB 990 STORM OVER LAND DURING SUNDAY MORNING
* ICE STORM ANTICIPATED FOR I 81 IN MD, I 99 IN PA ALTOONA, BEDFORD, TO ELK STATE FOREST..NORTH TO BINGHAMPTON.
*BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR DEEP CREEK, MD, WESTERN BLUE RIDGE MTNS, JOHNSTOWN PA- PITTSBURGH, PA , WEST OF 87 IN NYS INTO THE GREEN MTNS IN VT.  WINDS 60 PLUS...ROADS OUT OF COMMISSION  FOR A TIME!
* HEAVY RAIN FOR PHILLY , BALTIMORE, NYC, BOSTON, CHANGING TO SNOW BRIEFLY 
 

NEXT .. THE COLD!!

Remember our talk about the AO.. Arctic Oscillation!  The deal is .. It is not until the AO can achieve some grounds to more of a positive level before the cold air is shut down. 

First note the fact the model has been UNABLE to keep up with the AO through much of this month.  The ensembles all suggest a continued and turning deeply NEGATIVE AO index which essentially means more brutal attacks of cold air over the northern US .

The 8-10 day forecast from both the EURO and GFS are interesting.  
 ** First .. Let it be known the EURO has out performed the GFS in the cold air development from weeks ago.  I think both maps should be taken seriously seeing as a fully developed west based NAO is featured along with a 50-50 low development.  The evidence of this is associated with the massive central Canadian Ridging going into the next 10 day's (depicted by the purple coloring).  So with a - NAO development coupled with a strongly negative AO ..WE will see major cold over more than 60% of the US through the rest of this month. 

CAN WE GET SNOW?

Let this be known!  LA nina's favor areas well away from the coast for crippling snow storms.  The situation this weekend will test whether we see a strong inland runner or if this LA nina and pattern could produce late coastal development for a significant New England snow storm. 

If it's not this storm.. It will be another.

I like what the EURO does going out past this weekend...
First, It holds back energy further south and west then where this weekends storm will be.  However, note the heights building off the South Atlantic coastline.  The energy pocket (or vort max) will further develop the SE ridge turning the storm north bound before coastal development could take over.  However, should we be able to find a trend of the quasi 50-50 low to the North ;there maybe a suppression of the South East ridge allowing for a storm to go off shore.