BIG SNOWS AGAIN FOR THE COAST

Good morning... Here's what I have gotten in from some of our obs down south.


Huntsville... 7" on the ground .. greatest depth since superstorm of 1993
Warner Robings AFB CLOSED in middle GA with 3/4" of ice on the ground
2200 people (and ground) with out power in parts of GA
Ripley, MS 10.5 of snow
Sunday was the heaviest snow day in 43 years for Tupelo, MS.. Last was 1930!

The bottom line is .. This is just a historic storm for the deep south.  Measuring out the distance in width of precip it ranged from 800-900 miles.. Which means this storm will NOT just miss us all together.

The moisture out ahead of the storm is very encouraging.  THE Water vapor display at 7AM shows moistening of the mid levels well ahead of the storm which will keep DP's tomorrow much higher leading into the event.  So everyone will get a heavy wet snow to start with drying of the upper levels and higher snow ratios during the height and end of the event.

 What will be interesting is what happens going into Tuesday.  The modeling takes a rather strong "Primary low" throught the mountains with enough energy left on the coast to get a low going off Cape lookout by Tuesday night.  The winds switch rather quickly SE per the 850 and 700mb levels and there is some suggestion of a low wrapped up right on the NC coast.  This suggests the EURO is onto something and the GFS is the outlier.. Which holds onto a more east track.  QPF difference is around .25 for everyone on average.. Which is a different of around 6".. So the base of my accumulations will be 6" for everyone.. However, with the EURO solution in play the highest is 16-20"

THE NAM MODEL IS WHAT I WILL USE AGAIN.  Note the low over Western PA.. This will be a snow maker for central PA into the Ohio Valley.. with a HUGE fluff Factor.  I will take 30:1 from that.. especially as the low occludes  as the coastal low takes off.  

PLEASE NOTE..The NAM models' resolution is best and shows the best snow bandings! The accuracy has been pretty good with this model.  So as we turn our attentions to what is going on in the east.  Note The banding features with S plus snows from DE coast through Long Island and southern CT.  There will be 1-2" rates per hour east of 95..and this shows up on the GFS also.  Now with that primarly low wrapping cold air on the back side you will get high snow ratios as far south and east as Baltimore, MD.  So in NO way should people think they get less than 6" for Baltimore.  However, You will not be able to achieve a foot given the amount of moisture.  YOU CANT MAKE MOISTURE.. you just have to work with what you have however, you can fluff it up some!

 
THE HPC IS RIGHT ON WITH MY THINKING.. AND SHOWS THE BULLS EYE OVER QUOQUE AND PVC.

SO HERE'S MY FIRST CALL

CLOSE CALL ON BALTIMORE... STILL THINK THE SHOT FOR A 6" SNOW IS THERE..
CLOSE CALL ON PHILLY... STILL LIKE THE IDEA OF AREA'S NEARING A FOOT.. HOWEVER, THE BEST SHOT WILL BE EAST OF 295 !
CLOSE CALL ON NYC.. FOR OVER A FOOT.. BUT LOOKS LIKELY.
CONFIDENT CALL ON JERSEY SHORE, ALL OF LI, MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND GETTING 16 PLUS!