BOSTON FIRST...PHILLY AND BALTIMORE TO FOLLOW

There will be 2 systems that could be big.


FIRST... THE NEW ENGLAND EXPRESS
The Water vapor imagery already shows the start of a clipper system that will dive out of NW Canada by tomorrow night.  The modeling on this brings it through the Plains into the Ohio Valley by Late Thursday as it will intensify heading for the Delmarva by Friday Morning.  With Clipper systems you tends to get the best lift on the north east side of the system and there appears to be enough "Juice" to put down 1-3" swath from North of I 80 into the Mid Hudson valley.

As the system makes a run for the Delmarva .. it will carve out a decent negative tilted trough that will stretch into southern VT and NH.  The Best lift appears to be north of NYC into Albany Friday morning however as the system strengthens it will amplify the trough and tap into some Atlantic moisture.  This should enhance banding of snow for Much of Eastern MA, All of CT, and All of RI.

With this all in place the best potential for accumulating snows from Friday Night - Saturday (with the amplification of the 500mb inverted trough will be from CT to Boston.  Given snow ratios along with the moisture being drained off the Atlantic.. A conservative 3-6" widespread amount is there with isolated 6+" for areas along I 84 in CT.

PHILLY , BALTIMORE, DC, NYC...YOUR UP NEXT... AND DO YOU WANT COLD?... OKAY... HERE!

THIS IS WHEN THINGS GET INTERESTING.  AFTER THE NEW ENGLAND CLIPPER THE COLD AIR THAT THE CLIPPER PULLS DOWN ESSENTIALLY OPENS THE FLOOD GATE OF VERY DENSE COLD AIR BOTTLED UP OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY.  THE GFS HAS A TENDENCY TO OVERDO THE EXTEND OF "HOW COLD" HOWEVER, THE EURO TEMP PROFILES ARE SIMILAR.  I HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND PUT IN SOME IDEA'S FOR DAY HIGHS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

When we see the arctic boundary "Halted" or situated over the OHIO valley we tend to find some kind of a large temperature and pressure contour demarcation zone.  

ITS CERTAIN AS PER THE EURO AND GFS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GET KICKING OFF SAN DIEGO BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  AS THIS LOW PULLS ON SHORE THE FORCING AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL DRAG THE LOW TOWARDS WHAT I CALL "THE SWEET SPOT" .. THE DEMARCATION ZONE AS MENTIONED ABOVE.  THIS LOW WILL RIDE UP THE APPLE MOUNTAINS HOWEVER WILL BE THE MIRROR FOR A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING AS ENERGY TRIES TO SPLIT FROM THE SUBTROPICAL JET THAT WILL BE IN PLAY.  

REMEMBER... ARCTIC AIR IS SUPER DENSE.  THERE WILL BE A CAD FEATURE (COLD AIR DAMMING) SETUP FROM I 81 (MASON DIXON LINE) ON SOUTH WHICH WILL ESSENTIALLY KEEP EVERYTHING AS A FROZEN VARIETY WITH MIXING AND ICE OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.  


I AM CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ENERGY ESCAPING TOWARDS THE COAST TO ALLOW FOR A SYSTEM TO GET CRANKING OFF THE NC COAST LINE.  


THE EUROPEAN MODEL LIKE THIS HOWEVER DOES NOT HAVE A 50-50 LOW SETUP TO ALLOW FOR A MORE NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH IN THE EAST.. TO "CAPTURE" THE SYSTEM.  HOWEVER, I THINK WE SEE SUPER BOMBING OFF THE NC COAST THAT WILL CORRECT THE SOLUTION FURTHER WEST.

THE GFS HAS A DIFFERENT IDEA.. FOR NOW! ... IT HAS A 50-50 LOW SETUP WHICH WANTS TO PUMP IN A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE.. THIS COUPLED WITH A DEVELOPING NEG 500MB TROUGH WOULD BE ENOUGH TO SLOW THE SYSTEM AND PULL IT UP THE COAST.  HOWEVER, A BIG PLAYER COULD BE A HIGH DEVELOPING OVER SE CANADA.  LOW'S LOVE TO PARK UNDER THESE HIGHS AS LONG AS THE CONFLUENCE ZONE IS NOT STRONG AND TOO FAR SOUTH TO PUSH THE STORM SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC.  

BED TIME!  .....KEEP CHECKING IN AS THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AND CHANGE!


FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER!!!!


http://twitter.com/mikemasco