Setting The Base and Going From There

Good Morning.. Here's the RAW QPF data

BALTIMORE

NAM:  ..50

GFS:  .22

EURO: .21

AVERAGE TOGETHER IS 2-4" BASE

PHILADELPHIA: 

NAM:  .78

GFS:     .31

EURO:  .45

AVERAGE TOGETHER IS 6-8" BASE.. MINUS CONVECTIVE BURST .. 

NEW YORK CITY

NAM:  1.70

EURO: .96

GFS   .62

AVERAGE TOGETHER IS 10-12" BASE.. MINUS CONVECTIVE BURST

** NOW THESE BASE NUMBERS HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH THE IDEA THAT THE MORE LIFT YOU GET THE HIGHER THE SNOW RATES THAT WILL ACCOMPANY SUCH.. INFACT LETS LOOK QUICKLY AT THE EXPECTATIONS AS PER THE NAM MODEL IN REGARDS TO HOW VOLITLE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE ONCE THIS STORM GETS CRANKING..

FIRST IS AT 30 HOURS.. THE CITIES I WISH TO FOCUS ON IS BALTIMORE AND PHILADELPHIA.  IT APPEARS THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST.. AND I LIKE THIS IDEA SINCE WE ARE SEEING THE LOW ALREADY SITUATED MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST OVER THE CAROLINA'S.  SO ONCE THE TRANSFER OF ENERGY BEGINS AS YOU CAN SEE WITH THE BENDING OF ISOBARS TOWARDS THE WEST.



AS THE STORM ENTERS IT'S SUPERBOMBOGENESES STAGE THERE WILL BE MESO BANDING FEATURES SETTING UP NEAR PHILADELPHIA IF NOT ON PHILADELPHIA STRETCHING TOWARDS NYC.  WHAT HAS ME CONCERNED IS THE IDEA OF DRYSLOTTING FOR MUCH OF DE AND SE JERSEY.  WITH THE WAY THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING NNE I DO NOT FORESEE LONG ISLAND SEEING THAT.  HOWEVER, LONGISLAND COULD GO TO A MIX SITUATION.

ADSFA

SO HERE'S MY LAST CALL.

BALTIMORE:  3-5" YOU ARE ON THE EDGE OF MY 6-12" AMOUNT BUT I FEEL GOOD ABOUT ATLEAST 3 WITH BANDINGS CLOSE TO 5 ESP EAST OF 95.. 

PHIADELPHIA:  6-12 .. I AM GOING WITH 12" FOR PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL 

NEW YORK CITY:  BEST DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH HIGHEST QPF IS 10-16 WITH 16" AMTS OVER THE BRONX AND QUEENS

LONG ISLAND.. VERY INTERESTING.. WHILE MOST SEE 16" .. THERE WILL BE SOME BOUNDARY LAYER ISSUES.. WHICH CLIMO FAVORS MIXING.. THE LEAST YOU SEE IS A FOOT IN MY OPINION.. MORE MIXING MAYBE 8"

CT:  WIDESPREAD 16" AMOUNTS WITH LOLLIPOP 20" AMTS OVER NE CT.

MA:  WIDESPEAD 12" WITH 16" FOR WORCESTER HILLS AND LOLLIPOP AMTS OF 20".. A TON OF MIXING WILL BE OVER THE CAPE WITH A GENERAL 3-5" AMOUNT.. BOSTON MAY ALSO MIX FOR A WHILE.. SO I WILL KEEP THEM A 12" AMOUNT..