Not So Fast In Regards to Wed/Thu's Storm

I have seen the discussion about this HUGE storm ect ect... the hype machine has gone crazy with people throwing out the idea of FEETS of snow (sigh).  The deal is there will be an impressive looking storm off the east coast by wednesday which some area's seeing a good clip of snow coming down.... But I am NOT overly sold on a snow event for the cities or even the notion we have a PHASED low!  There is a rediculous battle between the NEW 12z NAM and last night's EUROPEAN which are night and day differences.


First, The NAM solution plays out a separated northern and southern jet with the southern jet holding back energy much longer until the system reaches north of the benchmark.  

On the opposite side we have a deeper solution with plenty of deep phasing.  However, there will be LITTLE to NO cold air to work with as far west as the Lehigh Valley in PA or even inside Baltimore and DC burbs.

Here is the RAW data from the00z EURO at PHL

WED 18Z 26-JAN   2.8     1.5    1012      94     100    0.17     555     546    
THU 00Z 27-JAN   1.4     2.8    1001      95     100    0.53     549     548    
THU 06Z 27-JAN   1.1    -1.9     995      93      56    0.54     538     542    
THU 12Z 27-JAN   1.1    -3.3    1002      90      97    0.45     541     540    
THU 18Z 27-JAN   2.9    -2.0    1006      65      12    0.02     544     539  

THAT'S A LOT OF RAIN!!!!!!!!!!! 

THE CANADIAN IS EVEN FURTHER WEST WITH A FULL ON PHASE AND NASTY LOW ON THE COAST.  THIS WOULD SPELL OUT COASTAL FLOODING SITUATION FROM THE OBX TO BOSTON WITH CRIPPLING SNOWS FROM I 81- I79 over the Blue Ridge, Allegheny, High elevations of the Pocono's, Berkshire's, Green Mtns.  This type of solution is very LA NINA and less what we have seen thus far this season.

But lets back up... Is this actually a coastal runner?
The NAO is not in a favorable position to hold onto coastal lows or provide the upstream blocking necessary for it.   WE see a rather neutral to slightly negative phase where we are at the present moment and while the EURO plays around with a east based - NAO development the NAM and GFS just doesn't see it and keeps the 5H flow mostly zonal with a late phase (typical to what you find with an NAO switching more towards a positive phase.).