Good Morning! I apologize for the lack of blogging.. It's been a rough week up in New England. I do miss Philadelphia and Baltimore and being use to predicting snow changing to rain because of the coastal effects with colder air over the Lehigh Valley, Pocono's, or Blue Ridge MTNS keeping the cold air in place. Up here it is a WHOLE different world. WE have the Berkshire MTS....WE have the Worcester Hills.. and we have a valley that gets down to 0 and -10 degrees and some how manages to RAIN! SO my forecasting skills have been tied up to this neck of the woods.
Ok so we sit here on this Wednesday morning looking over some of these models trying to figure out what exactly will happen with this storm in question for Friday. I have been keeping a running tally on the NAM and GFS solutions. The NAM has done well so far aside from maybe being a little "wetter" of a solution for some on the last system. The NAM is once again headlining a system the will ride along some northern jet stream moisture accompanied by super cold air on the back side of the low. This borders a clipper system due to its spread however it orientation is over the Rockies with a classic miller B type of track. So already we can confirm this will NOT be a jucy foot plus storm for the mid Atlantic. However, enough intensification on the coast along with a moisture source (Atlantic) could make for another southern new england type of system.
THE NAM TRENDS FROM 12Z ARE AS FOLLOWED. THE NAM HAS BACKED AWAY FROM IT'S MORE PHASED SOLUTION HOWEVER HAS CORRECTED SOME ON THE 6Z RUN...
THE GFS HAS DONE THE OPPOSITE. PHASED A BIT MORE AND CORRECTED FURTHER WEST BRINING MORE MOISTURE BACK TOWARDS THE COAST.
HERE IS THE GFS ENSEMBLE THAT SHOULDN'T BE OVER LOOKED.. MOST MEMBERS PUT THIS STORM CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH SNOWS INSIDE THE 95 STRETCH FROM BALTIMORE TO NYC...
12 Z TODAY WILL BE A BIG RUN! WILL HAVE ANOTHER BLOG OUT LATER!
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