MASCO'S FINAL CALL and NEXT WEEKS STORM

The NAM solution continue to remain consistent and I just like what I see.

 

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS:

1.  STRONG CONVECTIVE BAND TYPE OF SETUP

2.  HUGE SNOW RATIOS 20:1 NEARING 30:1

3.  SUMMER TIME TYPE OF DYNAMICS.. STRONG LIFT, STEEP LAPSE RATES, AND EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENTS THAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

4.  THUNDER SNOW OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD HILLS OF CT.

5.  OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS FOR GLOUSTER MA

6.  HUGE CUTOFFS FROM CENTRAL NJ TO PHILADELPHIA.

HERE IS MY LAST CALL MAP

It will be a general 4-6" amount in the areas from north central NJ to Northern CT.  I have included north shore of Boston and all of the coastal area's of ME since the models continue to support the idea of ocean effect snows developing.

Area's outside of that with QPF's less than .10 I have placed in a 2-4" amount since I believe there is enough moisture at 700mb coupled with enough dynamics and 25 plus : 1 snow ratios to achieve atleast 2 " but not to exceed 4".

It will be a 6-10" amount inside the greatest lift and greatest moisture.  This is essention inside the lope of the vortmax which has soundings that look like something a summer time thunderstorm would develop on.  Where you get the greatest lift you will get a 10" snowfall.. Where the lift is marginal like NYC, LI, I 78 in NJ, and Northern Lehigh valley you will find a common 6" amount.  Amount will vary greatly!

 MY MODEL OF CHOICE.... NAM QPF SOLUTION.....

 

 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ON NEXT WEEKS STORM.. 

PHILLY , BALTIMORE, DC, NYC...YOUR UP NEXT... AND DO YOU WANT COLD?... OKAY... HERE!

THIS IS WHEN THINGS GET INTERESTING.  AFTER THE NEW ENGLAND CLIPPER THE COLD AIR THAT THE CLIPPER PULLS DOWN ESSENTIALLY OPENS THE FLOOD GATE OF VERY DENSE COLD AIR BOTTLED UP OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY.  THE GFS HAS A TENDENCY TO OVERDO THE EXTEND OF "HOW COLD" HOWEVER, THE EURO TEMP PROFILES ARE SIMILAR.  I HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND PUT IN SOME IDEA'S FOR DAY HIGHS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

When we see the arctic boundary "Halted" or situated over the OHIO valley we tend to find some kind of a large temperature and pressure contour demarcation zone.  

ITS CERTAIN AS PER THE EURO AND GFS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GET KICKING OFF SAN DIEGO BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  AS THIS LOW PULLS ON SHORE THE FORCING AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL DRAG THE LOW TOWARDS WHAT I CALL "THE SWEET SPOT" .. THE DEMARCATION ZONE AS MENTIONED ABOVE.  THIS LOW WILL RIDE UP THE APPLE MOUNTAINS HOWEVER WILL BE THE MIRROR FOR A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING AS ENERGY TRIES TO SPLIT FROM THE SUBTROPICAL JET THAT WILL BE IN PLAY.  

REMEMBER... ARCTIC AIR IS SUPER DENSE.  THERE WILL BE A CAD FEATURE (COLD AIR DAMMING) SETUP FROM I 81 (MASON DIXON LINE) ON SOUTH WHICH WILL ESSENTIALLY KEEP EVERYTHING AS A FROZEN VARIETY WITH MIXING AND ICE OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.  


I AM CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ENERGY ESCAPING TOWARDS THE COAST TO ALLOW FOR A SYSTEM TO GET CRANKING OFF THE NC COAST LINE.  


THE EUROPEAN MODEL LIKE THIS HOWEVER DOES NOT HAVE A 50-50 LOW SETUP TO ALLOW FOR A MORE NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH IN THE EAST.. TO "CAPTURE" THE SYSTEM.  HOWEVER, I THINK WE SEE SUPER BOMBING OFF THE NC COAST THAT WILL CORRECT THE SOLUTION FURTHER WEST.

THE GFS HAS A DIFFERENT IDEA.. FOR NOW! ... IT HAS A 50-50 LOW SETUP WHICH WANTS TO PUMP IN A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE.. THIS COUPLED WITH A DEVELOPING NEG 500MB TROUGH WOULD BE ENOUGH TO SLOW THE SYSTEM AND PULL IT UP THE COAST.  HOWEVER, A BIG PLAYER COULD BE A HIGH DEVELOPING OVER SE CANADA.  LOW'S LOVE TO PARK UNDER THESE HIGHS AS LONG AS THE CONFLUENCE ZONE IS NOT STRONG AND TOO FAR SOUTH TO PUSH THE STORM SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC.  

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