Operational Model vs Ensembles (AMERICAN) and GLOBAL'S ..Who is right?

DOES THE CORRECTION WEST COME TRUE? IF SO .. HOW MUCH MIXING COMES INTO PLAY..


Let's play it by the numbers right now..  this is the model break down per city.. I only used QPF AT FROZEN LEVEL.. This is 850MB and 2M surface numbers.. the 900mb level was not taken into consideration.. However that level of fronzen could mix down sleet which would cut totals in half.. Kind of my theory for what Baltimore and Philadelphia will go through.

THERE IS LITTLE CONSISTENCY ON EXACTLY THE TRACK AND  AMOUNT OF MILD AIR THAT GETS WORKED INTO THE SYSTEM.
          
                                      EURO                      GFS          NAM
PHILLY:          .27           .69    .79
HARTFORD:       1.45           .47    .38
NYC:             ----          .59    .68
BALTIMORE:       .05           .14  .92(W/ICE)
BOSTON:          1.06          .69    .32
----------BRAND NEW NAM--------------SEE NUMBERS ABOVE



PHL 12Z NAM

WED  1P 26-JAN   1.1    -1.4    1012      91     100    0.04     553     543    
WED  7P 26-JAN   0.2    -3.0    1006      94     100    0.17     546     541    
THU  1A 27-JAN  -0.5    -6.1    1006      95      77    0.72     539     534    
THU  7A 27-JAN  -3.2    -5.9    1012      86      20    0.07     540     531   

NYC 12Z NAM

THU  1A 27-JAN  -1.4    -5.9    1005      94      81    0.46     540     536    
THU  7A 27-JAN  -3.4    -7.0    1009      86      38    0.22     538     531    

BOS 12Z NAM
THU  1A 27-JAN  -1.1    -6.5    1005      92      92    0.07     542     537    
THU  7A 27-JAN  -2.5    -8.1    1004      92      81    0.23     535     532    
THU  1P 27-JAN  -0.9    -7.7    1007      76      25    0.02     534     529   
NEW JERSEY SHORE 12 Z NAM
WED  1P 26-JAN   1.8    -1.4    1012      90     100    0.02     553     544    
WED  7P 26-JAN   1.1    -2.1    1005      92     100    0.13     547     543    
THU  1A 27-JAN   0.0    -5.4    1004      95      91    0.72     539     536    
THU  7A 27-JAN  -2.0    -6.6    1009      87      39    0.27     539     531   
HARTFORD 12 Z NAM
WED  7P 26-JAN  -2.1    -4.5    1009      94      87    0.01     547     540    
THU  1A 27-JAN  -2.6    -6.1    1005      94      83    0.15     540     536    
THU  7A 27-JAN  -4.1    -8.0    1007      91      57    0.22     536     531 
 
 
 
 MASCO'S THOUGHTS.
 
I still see the best lift and cold air NW of the 95 cities.  The exact line and area of best
snows are still undetermined.  I like the idea of a 2-4" snow for Philadelphia however,
I maybe leaning towards a 3-6" if the idea of less of a western shift comes into
play.  Baltimore is a consistant 2-4" while NYC is a really toss up between nothing
to 6-12" ... I would like to see the EURO 12z today before making a change to more
of a western moving storm.  It's a battle between the AMERICAN OPERATIONAL'S EAST PATH
VS THEIR ENSEMBLE WESTERN TRACK WHICH ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH THE EURO, UKMET, GGEM.