Masco First Call MAP

2 Part solution in play.. see my previous  post for storm breakdown.. Little has changed.

2 Storms With 2 BIG impacts for the Mid Atlantic / New England.

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It appears likely that we will see 2 Moderate winter events for several states heading into this week.  

SYSTEM NUMBER 1

Timing:  Tuesday Morning - Tuesday Afternoon

PRECIP TYPE: MOSTLY SNOW N & W OF I 78 in PA NJ 

There are several components to the first system that will move through the Midatlantic.  The BIGGEST component will be an Arctic HIGH that will establish itself over Northern New England Tomorrow afternoon (Monday).  This high will bring down super cold air as far south as Philadelphia and Newark, NJ and it will settle through the day on Monday going into Tuesday Morning.  As a GIANT storm that will dump 2' of snow over the Mid west pushes east it will erode the cold air and the high will begin to retreat towards the east.  With cold air being so dense with the associated high and the positioning of the high working for snow lovers advantage all precip will start as SNOW!  The TRUE warm air advection will still be situated over the Tenn Valley however we will see a HAIR pin warm front (slight warming of the 900mb level) begin to move in from the south and west.  This warming combined with cold air in much of the column aloft will increase snowfall rates from everyone north of Wilmington, DE and (Baltimore being the wild card city at this point).  I think we see a general 2-3" by Tuesday afternoon as the warmer air wins over and a more North Eastern wind component comes into play.  The NE wind component that will pull down the front side of the departing Arctic high will NOT be a critical situation for areas north and west of I78 in PA and NJ because it will still be a cold wind inland further locking in a cold solution at all levels (essentially meaning no change over Tuesday Afternoon).  

A TROWAL will setup over the Lehigh Valley into southern Massachusettes as Frontogensis will begin.  

The image below shows the lift that will be associated with this development.  I am NOT overly impressed with it .. YET... But snowfall rates could be in the .75-1" ball park range going into early Tuesday afternoon.  Note the 0 Degree 850 line which is over I 78 the area's that I believe will NOT go over to sleet or rain.. South of that line will not have the dynamics to keep the column of air cold enough to continue to snow.. So a light sleet/rain event will be found.  This band of precip should only be 100 miles in width which will make it interesting to see how much some may get.

The best precip looks to be north and west of Philadelphia to SE MA where you see the .25 QPF amts.  I am willing to split the different out side of the I 78 to I84 area and call for a general 2-3" however, inside NW jersey, Lehigh Valley, Pocono's, and Litchfield hills in CT I could see a 4-6" snow event inside a very short window before the precip move east.  

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SYSTEM NUMBER 2

Timing:  PREDAWN WEDNESDAY- WEDNESDAY EVENING 

PRECIP TYPE: MOSTLY SNOW N & W OF I 84 in PA, NY, CT, MA

                         MAJOR ICE STORM I 78 to I 80 in NJ, PA

                         HEAVY RAIN / SLEET SOUTH OF I 78 TO THE SHORE

Storm 2 is a different beast.. While this is essentially the same storm that influenced Tuesday's weather.. The main components of the system will move into the Mid Atlantic.  Instead of slight warming of the Upper and Mid Levels we will see a True Warm Air Advection situation unfold.  However as specified above cold air will still be situated to the north as we will have a dieing Arctic air mass still in place coupled with a relatively fresh snow pact still in play.  The NAM model does decay the main low to a 1004 MB system which would decrease the Low Level Jet coming into play.  I do feel that is NOT correct and I could still see a sub 1000 MB low in play.  A weaker Ohio Valley low would essentially lower the amount of Warm air advecting north bound.  What has me concerned is the fact the thicknesses are NOT overly high.  We may have a 10 kt southern wind coming into the Lehigh Valley however the column may not even react to it with enough cold air locked into the column as the precip begins to pick up.  

 

THE NAM MODEL.. WHICH I BELIEVE IS THE BEST TO HANDLE THE UVV'S SHOWS A REALLY GOOD AMOUNT OF LIFT ...INSIDE -15 UVV'S WHICH IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A COLUMN TO OVERCOME ANY KIND OF WARM AIR INTRUSIONS.  However, THINK LA NINA and with CLIMO working into this solution I expect enough warm air to be inside the 900-875 MB layer to bring in sleet and snow from I 78 to I 80.  It's outside of I 80 towards Hartford which will be the toss up considering the initial low still has to track east and the further south it bends will cut down on the amount of WAA that will make it north.  

THINGS TO WATCH WITH STORM 2....

1.  TRACK OF THE LOW.. FURTHER SOUTH.. COLDER SOLUTION.

2.  INTENSITY!  LESS INTENSE = LESS WARM AIR MOVING NORTH

3.  COLD AIR... ARCTIC HIGH RETREATING SLOWER = COLDER AIR COLUMN LONGER!

MY PERSONAL THOUGHTS ARE.. KEEP AN EYE ON TUESDAY MORNING - TUESDAY AFTERNOON'S EVENT.  I STRONGLY BELIEVE WE HAVE A SURPRISE SNOW EVENT FOR MANY OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY, NW JERSEY, LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, AND INTO CT.  

WEDNESDAY AM - PM EVENT STILL HAVE 3 BIG THINGS TO BE WORKED OUT IN THE MODELS.. ( LISTED BELOW) .. TOTALS MAYBE SIGNIFICANT .. BUT MORE SO CONFIDED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LESS DENSELY POPULATED AREAS.

YOURS IN WEATHER,

MIKE MASCO

Times are Changing..Could We Be Going Backwards?

Here we go again.. Yet another storm on the table going into next week.  Something I have taken away from this winter is NEVER underestimate the power of strengthening storms.  The idea was there that last weeks storm would go bonkers yet I edged on the side of caution and under predicted the storm entirely.

Masco's Talking Points:
-  We are entering a different period of forecasting entirely.
-  The early 1900's storms could be coming back in full force
-  Long term NEGATIVE Arctic Oscillation are greatly influencing our weather today
-  40" plus inch snow seasons will be a common occurring once again.
-  The BIG storms your grandfathers talk about will be something you will start to witness.

 
It is fascinating from a meteorological standpoint to watch a storm go from a sheared off low to a true bomb off ACY with scattered lightning all over the east coast IN JANUARY!  The points I have made above are all part of a larger scale that I truly feel will continue to develope over the next several years.

While I am NOT an expert in the field of astronomy I do know that Sunspot cycles play a long term role in the overall temperature means globally.  Over the last decades the Sun has had a markedly high average level of sunspot activity; it was last similarly active over 8,000 years ago.  

Below you can see the overall trend of the solar cycle since the 1600’s. First off note the low cycle of solar sun spots during the 1600’s to 1790’s.  It was during this time period the globe found itself under Little Mini Ice ages.  It is generally agreed that there were three minima, beginning about 1650, about 1770, and 1850, each separated by intervals of slight warming.  

 

Starting in the 13th century, pack ice began advancing southwards in the North Atlantic, as did glaciers in Greenland. The three years of torrential rains beginning in 1315 ushered in an era of unpredictable weather in Northern Europe which did not lift until the 19th century. There is anecdotal evidence of expanding glaciers almost worldwide. In contrast, a climate reconstruction based on glacial length shows no great variation from 1600 to 1850, though it shows strong retreat thereafter.  The Little Ice Age brought colder winters to parts of Europe and North America. Farms and villages in the Swiss Alps were destroyed by encroaching glaciers during the mid-17th century. Canals and rivers in Great Britain and the Netherlands were frequently frozen deeply enough to support ice skating and winter festivals. The first River Thames frost fair was in 1607; the last in 1814, although changes to the bridges and the addition of an embankment affected the river flow and depth, hence diminishing the possibility of freezes. The freeze of the Golden Horn and the southern section of the Bosphorus took place in 1622. In 1658, a Swedish army marched across the Great Belt to Denmark to invade Copenhagen. The Baltic Sea froze over, enabling sledge rides from Poland to Sweden, with seasonal inns built on the way. The winter of 1794-1795 was particularly harsh when the French invasion army under Pichegru could march on the frozen rivers of the Netherlands, while the Dutch fleet was fixed in the ice in Den Helder harbor. In the winter of 1780, New York Harbor froze, allowing people to walk from Manhattan to Staten Island. Sea ice surrounding Iceland extended for miles in every direction, closing that island's harbors to shipping.

Finally, came the 19th century.  During this era an uptick in the amount of solar activy began to occur which maxed out on Sept 1st 1859 known as the Carrington Event.  This event caused major chaos in telegraph service in addition to an Aura seen as far south as Havana, Cuba. 

I want you to look at the graph below..  Note the 20 sunspot number (ie Wolf or zurich number).  The 1950-late 1970's featured unusually cool winters/summers with a ton of snow which was followed by the 1980's-2000 which features normal to below normal snowfall over North America with a few years that were the exception to that rule.

Note 2010...In 2006 NASA made a prediction for the next sunspot maximum, being between 150 and 200 around the year 2011 (30-50% stronger than cycle 23), followed by a weak maximum at around 2022. The prediction did not come true. Instead, the sunspot cycle in 2010 is still at its minimum, where it should have been near its maximum, showing the sun's unusual low activity.  2010 also featured the winter of HISTORIC cold and snow with North Atlantic oscillation and Arcticoscillation numbers nearing historic negitive low numbers.

HERE'S THE PREDICTION BY CHART

The first thing that should capture your attention is the idea we are already below what the expectations were.  The lack of solar activity over the next 10 years could be a sign of very cold global temperatures beyond 2010.

Let's not forget to mention the idea of Volcano's and Volcanic ash in the stratosphere.   The Image below will also show you volcanos and solar irradiation trends since 2400BC.  Hmm .. Didn't we just have a pretty solid Volcano erruption this year that spewed volcanic ash beyond 30,000' in the air?  










The INCREASE in growing glaciers news is there... with several media outlets world wide reporting it... WHAT'S NEXT?

1. Himalayan glaciers are growing, not shrinking

Things are not as they seemed to be in the IPCC report. Not only are the Himalayan glaciers not shrinking, they’re growing. Discovery reports:

Perched on the soaring Karakoram mountains in the Western Himalayas, a group of some 230 glaciers are bucking the global warming trend. They’re growing. Throughout much of the Tibetan Plateau, high-altitude glaciers are dwindling in the face of rising temperatures. The situation is potentially dire for the hundreds of millions of people living in China, India and throughout southeast Asia who depend on the glaciers for their water supply.

But in the rugged western corner of the plateau, the story is different, according to a new study. Among legendary peaks of Mt. Everest like K2 and Nanga Parbat, glaciers with a penthouse view of the world are growing, and have been for almost three decades.

“These are the biggest mid-latitude glaciers in the world,” John Shroder of the University of Nebraska-Omaha said. “And all of them are either holding still, or advancing.”

3. Norwegian glaciers. Growing again.

IceAgeNow.com reports on the growth of Norwegian glaciers:

“After years of decline, glaciers in Norway are again growing, reports the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate. The actual magnitude of the growth, which appears to have begun over the last two years, has not yet been quantified, says NVE Senior Engineer Hallgeir Elvehøy.”The developments were originally reported by the Norwegian Broadcasting Corporation (NRK).

Source: IceAgeNow.com

4. Glaciers growing on Canada’s tallest mountain

Canada.com tells the tale of glaciers growing on Canada’s tallest mountain:

“Canada’s tallest mountain, the Yukon’s towering Mount Logan, may have experienced a growth spurt.



“The University of Alaska aerial survey, conducted last summer with a laser altimeter by Fairbanks-based geoscientist Sandy Zirnheld, pegged Canada’s geographic zenith at 5,966 metres. That’s seven metres (23 feet) higher than the official height of 5,959 metres, determined in 1992 after a celebrated climb to the top by a team of Canadian researchers led by Mike Schmidt of the Geological Survey of Canada.



“Snow and ice accumulation is the most likely explanation,” Chris Larsen, the scientist leading the University of Alaska’s research on the continent’s northwest mountain ranges, said.”


5. North to Alaska and more growing glaciers

Alaska’s glaciers have been in retreat for nearly 200 years. But now they’re advancing again.

MichNews.com reports the cold, hard facts:

“Unusually large amounts of Alaskan snow last winter were followed by unusually chilly temperatures there this summer. “In general, the weather this summer was the worst I have seen in at least 20 years,” says Bruce Molnia of the U.S. Geological Survey, and author of The Glaciers of Alaska. “It’s been a long time on most glaciers where they’ve actually had positive mass balance (added thickness).”

“Overall, Molnia figures Alaska had lost 10–12,000 square kilometers of ice since 1800, the depths of the Little Ice Age. That’s enough ice to cover the state of Connecticut. Climate alarmists claim all the glaciers might disappear soon, but they haven’t looked at the long-term evidence of the 1,500-year Dansgaard-Oeschger climate cycles. During the Little Ice Age—1400 to 1850—Muir Glacier filled the whole of Glacier Bay. Since then, the glacier has retreated 57 miles.

Source: MichNews.com

6. Glaciers are growing in California. California?

You might be surprised to learn that the Golden State has glaciers. And the Associated Press says they’re growing:

“Global warming is shrinking glaciers all over the world, but the seven tongues of ice creeping down Mount Shasta’s flanks are a rare exception: They are the only known glaciers in the continental U.S. that are growing.”

Source: FoxNews.com

7. A glacier is growing on Washington’s Mt. St. Helens.

Mount Saint Helens has glaciers? But it’s an active volcano. But, but, but…

KATU-TV reports the details:

“On May 18, 1980, the once bucolic ice-cream cone shape that defined Mount St. Helens in Washington state disappeared in monstrous blast of ash, rock, gas, and heat.

“Inside the volcano, which was once a soft dome of snow but is now a gaping, steaming menace with an unpredictable streak, an unexpected phenomenon is taking place: a glacier is growing.

“In these days of global warming concerns and scientists showing alarming then-and-now images of glaciers disappearing from mountainsides, it may be the only growing glacier in America – or maybe the world.

Source: KATU.com

8. Glaciers are growing in France and Switzerland, too

Another continent has reported in. According to an article in the Journal of Geophysical Research, glaciers are growing in France and Switzerland, too:

The research was conducted by six scientists from leading agencies and departments in France and Switzerland that deal with hydrology and glaciology. The research was funded by Observatoire des Sciences de l’Univers de Grenoble (OSUG), the European Programs ALPCLIM and CARBOSOL, and by the city of Chamonix Mont-Blanc.Vincent et al. collected a variety of datasets that could help them understand how the high-elevation glaciers of Mont Blanc were impacted by variations and trends in climate. Among other findings, they found that the mass balance of the glaciers is strongly controlled by precipitation, not temperature.

Vincent et al. state “The most striking features of these figures are the small thickness changes observed over the 20th century. For both areas, thickness variations do not exceed ±15 m. The average changes are +2.6 m at Dôme du Goûter (please note that this glacier is growing) and -0.3 m (-12 inches) at Mont Blanc.

“Considering the uncertainty interval, i.e., ±5 m, it can be concluded that no significant thickness change is detectable over most of these areas”. “All these results suggest that the SMBDôme du Goûter and Mont Blanc did not experience any significant changes over the 20th century.”

Source: World Climate Report

Complex Storm in Two Parts

Here's my final snow map..  This will be achieved by the second round that will move in later tonight

HUGE BUST POTENTIAL

I DON'T LIKE THIS STORM.. THERE I SAID IT! 

FIRST.. IS THE FACT THIS IS AN OPEN LOW NO MATTER HOW YOU SLICE IT.  Go from 500mb to the surface and you have a strung out ugly looking system on a ENE motion.  The blocking is NOT overly impressive as I stated before and an appearance like this favors more snow towards the coast.

The best dynamics.. Where you will see the atmosphere over compensate for slightly warmer air in the mid levels will be found east of 295.. NOT inside Philadelphia.. and these bands maybe only 15-20miles long.  That is a serious issue since we are NO longer talking about a back end dump of snow but rather a convection event ..IE think of summer time thunderstorms!!! So the best lift will be towards interior NJ heading into NYC.

NOW CAST TIME!!!!!!!!!

Operational Model vs Ensembles (AMERICAN) and GLOBAL'S ..Who is right?

DOES THE CORRECTION WEST COME TRUE? IF SO .. HOW MUCH MIXING COMES INTO PLAY..


Let's play it by the numbers right now..  this is the model break down per city.. I only used QPF AT FROZEN LEVEL.. This is 850MB and 2M surface numbers.. the 900mb level was not taken into consideration.. However that level of fronzen could mix down sleet which would cut totals in half.. Kind of my theory for what Baltimore and Philadelphia will go through.

THERE IS LITTLE CONSISTENCY ON EXACTLY THE TRACK AND  AMOUNT OF MILD AIR THAT GETS WORKED INTO THE SYSTEM.
          
                                      EURO                      GFS          NAM
PHILLY:          .27           .69    .79
HARTFORD:       1.45           .47    .38
NYC:             ----          .59    .68
BALTIMORE:       .05           .14  .92(W/ICE)
BOSTON:          1.06          .69    .32
----------BRAND NEW NAM--------------SEE NUMBERS ABOVE



PHL 12Z NAM

WED  1P 26-JAN   1.1    -1.4    1012      91     100    0.04     553     543    
WED  7P 26-JAN   0.2    -3.0    1006      94     100    0.17     546     541    
THU  1A 27-JAN  -0.5    -6.1    1006      95      77    0.72     539     534    
THU  7A 27-JAN  -3.2    -5.9    1012      86      20    0.07     540     531   

NYC 12Z NAM

THU  1A 27-JAN  -1.4    -5.9    1005      94      81    0.46     540     536    
THU  7A 27-JAN  -3.4    -7.0    1009      86      38    0.22     538     531    

BOS 12Z NAM
THU  1A 27-JAN  -1.1    -6.5    1005      92      92    0.07     542     537    
THU  7A 27-JAN  -2.5    -8.1    1004      92      81    0.23     535     532    
THU  1P 27-JAN  -0.9    -7.7    1007      76      25    0.02     534     529   
NEW JERSEY SHORE 12 Z NAM
WED  1P 26-JAN   1.8    -1.4    1012      90     100    0.02     553     544    
WED  7P 26-JAN   1.1    -2.1    1005      92     100    0.13     547     543    
THU  1A 27-JAN   0.0    -5.4    1004      95      91    0.72     539     536    
THU  7A 27-JAN  -2.0    -6.6    1009      87      39    0.27     539     531   
HARTFORD 12 Z NAM
WED  7P 26-JAN  -2.1    -4.5    1009      94      87    0.01     547     540    
THU  1A 27-JAN  -2.6    -6.1    1005      94      83    0.15     540     536    
THU  7A 27-JAN  -4.1    -8.0    1007      91      57    0.22     536     531 
 
 
 
 MASCO'S THOUGHTS.
 
I still see the best lift and cold air NW of the 95 cities.  The exact line and area of best
snows are still undetermined.  I like the idea of a 2-4" snow for Philadelphia however,
I maybe leaning towards a 3-6" if the idea of less of a western shift comes into
play.  Baltimore is a consistant 2-4" while NYC is a really toss up between nothing
to 6-12" ... I would like to see the EURO 12z today before making a change to more
of a western moving storm.  It's a battle between the AMERICAN OPERATIONAL'S EAST PATH
VS THEIR ENSEMBLE WESTERN TRACK WHICH ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH THE EURO, UKMET, GGEM.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

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ON TWITTER FOR REAL TIME WEATHER UPDATES..AND JUST SO MUCH MORE THAT GOES ON IN MY MIND.. YIKES

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WHAT I LIKE.. WHAT I DON'T LIKE

1ST.. THE AMOUNT OF LIFT SHOWING UP ON THE MODELS.  NORTH OF THE "BOWLING BALL" WILL BE -15 UVV PLUS LIFT... THIS SUPPORTS RAPID SNOW FALL... 2" PLUS

WHAT I DON'T LIKE... HOW THE GFS IS HOLDING BACK ENERGY AND BRINING THE PATTERN MORE ZONAL.. IE ENE MOVING STORM.  THIS DOES LITTLE SUPPORT HEAVY SNOWS....

And then look at the EURO which has remained consistent with the UKMET of NO ENERGY lost in the system with much better phasing.  This is a VERY WARM solution.. with little backside snows.

PHILADELPHIA EURO NUMBERS.. NO SNOW FOR YOU.. JUST RIDICULOUS HEAVY RAINS! 

WED 12Z 26-JAN  -1.7    -0.8    1018      85     100    0.01     557     543    
WED 18Z 26-JAN   2.1     0.3    1013      94      99    0.15     555     545    
THU 00Z 27-JAN   1.3     1.8    1006      97      95    0.20     551     546    
THU 06Z 27-JAN   1.2     0.3     995      93      95    0.48     542     546    
THU 12Z 27-JAN   1.0    -2.4    1000      92      91    0.66     541     541    
THU 18Z 27-JAN   2.9    -2.1    1004      67      13    0.11     542     538  

NEW YORK CITY.. NO SNOW FOR YOU......... WELL, OKAY.. A FEW FLAKES!

WED 18Z 26-JAN   1.7    -2.1    1016      93     100    0.06     555     542    
THU 00Z 27-JAN   1.6     0.4    1009      93     100    0.15     551     544    
THU 06Z 27-JAN   1.4     0.9     997      91      99    0.53     545     547    
THU 12Z 27-JAN   1.2    -2.3     997      89      80    0.49     539     541    
THU 18Z 27-JAN   2.4    -2.9    1002      77      95    0.11     540     538    

HARTFORD.. NOT SO FAST.. .25" OF QPF UNDER SNOW CONDITIONS.. HMMM .

WED 18Z 26-JAN   1.3    -3.5    1017      82      81    0.01     553     539    
THU 00Z 27-JAN  -0.2    -1.4    1012      94      99    0.10     551     542    
THU 06Z 27-JAN   0.2    -0.7    1003      95     100    0.36     547     544    
THU 12Z 27-JAN   0.0    -2.9     997      91      83    0.52     539     541    
THU 18Z 27-JAN  -0.2    -4.7     999      81      99    0.19     537     538    
FRI 00Z 28-JAN  -2.5    -3.8    1004      80      42    0.03 

Not So Fast In Regards to Wed/Thu's Storm

I have seen the discussion about this HUGE storm ect ect... the hype machine has gone crazy with people throwing out the idea of FEETS of snow (sigh).  The deal is there will be an impressive looking storm off the east coast by wednesday which some area's seeing a good clip of snow coming down.... But I am NOT overly sold on a snow event for the cities or even the notion we have a PHASED low!  There is a rediculous battle between the NEW 12z NAM and last night's EUROPEAN which are night and day differences.


First, The NAM solution plays out a separated northern and southern jet with the southern jet holding back energy much longer until the system reaches north of the benchmark.  

On the opposite side we have a deeper solution with plenty of deep phasing.  However, there will be LITTLE to NO cold air to work with as far west as the Lehigh Valley in PA or even inside Baltimore and DC burbs.

Here is the RAW data from the00z EURO at PHL

WED 18Z 26-JAN   2.8     1.5    1012      94     100    0.17     555     546    
THU 00Z 27-JAN   1.4     2.8    1001      95     100    0.53     549     548    
THU 06Z 27-JAN   1.1    -1.9     995      93      56    0.54     538     542    
THU 12Z 27-JAN   1.1    -3.3    1002      90      97    0.45     541     540    
THU 18Z 27-JAN   2.9    -2.0    1006      65      12    0.02     544     539  

THAT'S A LOT OF RAIN!!!!!!!!!!! 

THE CANADIAN IS EVEN FURTHER WEST WITH A FULL ON PHASE AND NASTY LOW ON THE COAST.  THIS WOULD SPELL OUT COASTAL FLOODING SITUATION FROM THE OBX TO BOSTON WITH CRIPPLING SNOWS FROM I 81- I79 over the Blue Ridge, Allegheny, High elevations of the Pocono's, Berkshire's, Green Mtns.  This type of solution is very LA NINA and less what we have seen thus far this season.

But lets back up... Is this actually a coastal runner?
The NAO is not in a favorable position to hold onto coastal lows or provide the upstream blocking necessary for it.   WE see a rather neutral to slightly negative phase where we are at the present moment and while the EURO plays around with a east based - NAO development the NAM and GFS just doesn't see it and keeps the 5H flow mostly zonal with a late phase (typical to what you find with an NAO switching more towards a positive phase.). 

SNOW MAP FOR FRI'S QUICK HITTER

FRIDAY'S SYSTEM IS ONE TO WATCH!

Good Morning!  I apologize for the lack of blogging.. It's been a rough week up in New England.  I do miss Philadelphia and Baltimore and being use to predicting snow changing to rain because of the coastal effects with colder air over the Lehigh Valley, Pocono's, or Blue Ridge MTNS keeping the cold air in place.  Up here it is a WHOLE different world.  WE have the Berkshire MTS....WE have the Worcester Hills.. and we have a valley that gets down to 0 and -10 degrees and some how manages to RAIN! SO my forecasting skills have been tied up to this neck of the woods.  

Ok so we sit here on this Wednesday morning looking over some of these models trying to figure out what exactly will happen with this storm in question for Friday.  I have been keeping a running tally on the NAM and GFS solutions.  The NAM has done well so far aside from maybe being a little "wetter" of a solution for some on the last system.  The NAM is once again headlining a system the will ride along some northern jet stream moisture accompanied by super cold air on the back side of the low.  This borders a clipper system due to its spread however it orientation is over the Rockies with a classic miller B type of track.  So already we can confirm this will NOT be a jucy foot plus storm for the mid Atlantic. However, enough intensification on the coast along with a moisture source (Atlantic) could make for another southern new england type of system.

THE NAM TRENDS FROM 12Z ARE AS FOLLOWED.  THE NAM HAS BACKED AWAY FROM IT'S MORE PHASED SOLUTION HOWEVER HAS CORRECTED SOME ON THE 6Z RUN...

 THE GFS HAS DONE THE OPPOSITE.  PHASED A BIT MORE AND CORRECTED FURTHER WEST BRINING MORE MOISTURE BACK TOWARDS THE COAST.

HERE IS THE GFS ENSEMBLE THAT SHOULDN'T BE OVER LOOKED.. MOST MEMBERS PUT THIS STORM CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH SNOWS INSIDE THE 95 STRETCH FROM BALTIMORE TO NYC...

12 Z TODAY WILL BE A BIG RUN!  WILL HAVE ANOTHER BLOG OUT LATER!

Setting The Base and Going From There

Good Morning.. Here's the RAW QPF data

BALTIMORE

NAM:  ..50

GFS:  .22

EURO: .21

AVERAGE TOGETHER IS 2-4" BASE

PHILADELPHIA: 

NAM:  .78

GFS:     .31

EURO:  .45

AVERAGE TOGETHER IS 6-8" BASE.. MINUS CONVECTIVE BURST .. 

NEW YORK CITY

NAM:  1.70

EURO: .96

GFS   .62

AVERAGE TOGETHER IS 10-12" BASE.. MINUS CONVECTIVE BURST

** NOW THESE BASE NUMBERS HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH THE IDEA THAT THE MORE LIFT YOU GET THE HIGHER THE SNOW RATES THAT WILL ACCOMPANY SUCH.. INFACT LETS LOOK QUICKLY AT THE EXPECTATIONS AS PER THE NAM MODEL IN REGARDS TO HOW VOLITLE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE ONCE THIS STORM GETS CRANKING..

FIRST IS AT 30 HOURS.. THE CITIES I WISH TO FOCUS ON IS BALTIMORE AND PHILADELPHIA.  IT APPEARS THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST.. AND I LIKE THIS IDEA SINCE WE ARE SEEING THE LOW ALREADY SITUATED MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST OVER THE CAROLINA'S.  SO ONCE THE TRANSFER OF ENERGY BEGINS AS YOU CAN SEE WITH THE BENDING OF ISOBARS TOWARDS THE WEST.



AS THE STORM ENTERS IT'S SUPERBOMBOGENESES STAGE THERE WILL BE MESO BANDING FEATURES SETTING UP NEAR PHILADELPHIA IF NOT ON PHILADELPHIA STRETCHING TOWARDS NYC.  WHAT HAS ME CONCERNED IS THE IDEA OF DRYSLOTTING FOR MUCH OF DE AND SE JERSEY.  WITH THE WAY THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING NNE I DO NOT FORESEE LONG ISLAND SEEING THAT.  HOWEVER, LONGISLAND COULD GO TO A MIX SITUATION.

ADSFA

SO HERE'S MY LAST CALL.

BALTIMORE:  3-5" YOU ARE ON THE EDGE OF MY 6-12" AMOUNT BUT I FEEL GOOD ABOUT ATLEAST 3 WITH BANDINGS CLOSE TO 5 ESP EAST OF 95.. 

PHIADELPHIA:  6-12 .. I AM GOING WITH 12" FOR PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL 

NEW YORK CITY:  BEST DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH HIGHEST QPF IS 10-16 WITH 16" AMTS OVER THE BRONX AND QUEENS

LONG ISLAND.. VERY INTERESTING.. WHILE MOST SEE 16" .. THERE WILL BE SOME BOUNDARY LAYER ISSUES.. WHICH CLIMO FAVORS MIXING.. THE LEAST YOU SEE IS A FOOT IN MY OPINION.. MORE MIXING MAYBE 8"

CT:  WIDESPREAD 16" AMOUNTS WITH LOLLIPOP 20" AMTS OVER NE CT.

MA:  WIDESPEAD 12" WITH 16" FOR WORCESTER HILLS AND LOLLIPOP AMTS OF 20".. A TON OF MIXING WILL BE OVER THE CAPE WITH A GENERAL 3-5" AMOUNT.. BOSTON MAY ALSO MIX FOR A WHILE.. SO I WILL KEEP THEM A 12" AMOUNT..