Severe Storms Possible In The East

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman OK has expanded the RISK area for severe storms over Baltimore and DC Metro.

Surface analysis this morning shows a cold front draped across the state of Maryland.  At 10AM BelAir reported a temperature of 54 while the southern tip of the state (bullrun) showed a reading of 70 degrees.

This separation between the cool stable air mass to the unstable one to the south will be the dividing line for severe storms this afternoon.

The RPM lifted index parameter shows the best lift will be found over Deep Creek to Pax river throughout the afternoon. A look at the CAPE shows values only hitting 200 J/kg during the afternoon which indicates any storm that develops will have a very tough time becoming vertically stacked (producing severe storms)

My outlook for severe weather will focus west of I95 over Allegheny county through Northern WV, and VA.  PA and OH will also see a line of storms come through later in the evening going into the overnight.