Mike Masco: Hurricane 2012 Outlook

MIKE MASCO:

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: TWITTER HANDLE:HTTPS://TWITTER.COM/#!/MIKEMASCO

                   &

FOLLOW ME ON FACEBOOK:   FACEBOOK HANDLE:HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/PAGES/MIKE-MASCO-METEOROLOGIST/1064343194033

he official start to the 2012 hurricane season is a little over a month away.  Predictions for Dr Gray , Accuweather, and other private sector companies have already started to come out.  The general consensus shows a lackluster season with BELOW AVERAGE expectations by the end of the season.

* Colorado State, which forecast 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes and two major hurricanes
* WeatherBell, which forecast 9-12 named storms, 4-6 hurricanes, and 2-3 major hurricanes

So what is AVERAGE ?
Average is 12.1 named storms, 6.4 hurricanes, and 2.7 major hurricanes.

Remember there are several factors that go into hurricane forecasting.  Dr Gray and Colorado state noted ELNINO conditions developing by mid season which would increase shear over the Atlantic basin.  

The combination of a weak el Nino that should develop with higher than normal pressures over the eastern and central Atlantic can create strong low level easterlies and enhance shear. Additionally, a less active African tropical wave train is possible as a result of the disruption of the Asian subcontinent monsoon. These are all factors that contribute to the idea of decreased tropical activity for 2012.  

Here is latest anomonlies for MAY.  Note ENSO region 1&2 being above normal while 3, 3.4, and 4 showing nothing "out of the ordinary" in terms of dramatic warming or cooling.

The PDO or Pacific Decadal Oscillation is, in my opinion a factor in the performance of the ENSO.   I do believe the strength of the PDO will dictate the strength of the LA Nina V El Nino.  For example.  All winter long our PDO remained in a cool phase or NEGATIVE STATE.  Here's the Data for Nov , Dec, Jan , Feb, March: :  2011 -2.33 -1.79 2012** -1.38 -0.85 -1.05

Now here is the sea surface temp anomalies.  While a considerable warming has occurred in all 4 regions of the NINO, a leveling off has occurred between April and May.  Note the new march PDO index which actually has it turning more negative.  This would correspond to the leveling off of the warming over region 1,2,3.  

When it comes to Elnino's affecting the behavior of Hurricane seasons over the Atlantic, I typically look to regions 3.4  and 4 which If correspond to 1,2 and 3 will classify the state of ENSO as "sustained" or "Long Lasting" .  These charges while show a trend DO NOT support enough evidence of a FULL on ELNINO event by the summer of 2012 ! 

The depth of the ENSO regions show moderate warming in the 100m depth of region 3.4 which could speed up the trend towards EL nino conditions however, it hasn't been a consistent and even warming process through spring.  The saying " Too little Too Late" can apply for EL nino to have a huge impact on the amount of storms for this year.

THE MODELS

The spread of models suggest neutral conditions through August with a trend towards ELNINO conditions going into Fall.  This suggests a season that could end early.

FACTORS LOOKED AT:
ENSO CONDITIONS, EARLY START TO THE SEASON, NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN, WARM WATER SURROUNDING THE CONTINENTAL US

So basing the ENSO state at somewhere from neutral to slightly above average I have come up with similarities between 2001,2006,1996,1994,1986, and 1968.  All years coming out of a LA nina event in winter to a neutral state by the summer months of the corresponding years.

     STORMS  HURRICANES




2001    15                    9




***92 DEATHS
***3 RETIRED 

 STORMS  HURRICANES




2006    10                    5

** 5 DEATHS 

 STORMS  HURRICANES 




1996    13                    9

** 126 DEATHS 

 STORMS  HURRICANES 




1994    7                    3

** 1,175 DEATHS 

 STORMS  HURRICANES 




1986    6                    4

** 9 DEATHS 

 STORMS  HURRICANES 




1968    8                   4

** 0 DEATHS 




THE DATA splits between slightly above average (2001, 2006, and 1996) to below average in 94,86, and 68.  HOWEVER, the one thing to note is the impact over the SE coast and Florida along with atleast 1 system in the Gulf of Mexico.  

While the forecast may be low, the threat level for the US mainland is actually elevated to MODERATE this year!  










                
                               STORMS       HURRICANES               MAJOR


AVERAGE     12.1             6.4                2.7


PREDICTION  14              5                    0




I feel we could see 14 named storms INCLUDING ALBERTO with at least 5 becoming hurricanes.  I do not see 1 major storm unless one is able to get into the Gulf Of Mexico.  I feel this is the year of Tropical Storms that will dump copious amounts of rain over the east coast with several storms developing off deep troughs setup on the east coast.  I also believe there is a good shot of at least one tropical storm affecting the Mid Atlantic from Delaware to Virginia.