Years To Look at: Predicting The 2012 Hurricane Season

MIKE MASCO:

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: Twitter Handle:https://twitter.com/#!/MikeMasco

                   &

FOLLOW ME ON FACEBOOK:   Facebook Handle:http://www.facebook.com/pages/Mike-Masco-Meteorologist/1064343194033

The official start to the 2012 hurricane season is a little over a month away.  Predictions for Dr Gray , Accuweather, and other private sector companies have already started to come out.  The general consensus shows a lackluster season with BELOW AVERAGE expectations by the end of the season.

* Colorado State, which forecast 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes and two major hurricanes
* WeatherBell, which forecast 9-12 named storms, 4-6 hurricanes, and 2-3 major hurricanes

So what is AVERAGE ?
Average is 12.1 named storms, 6.4 hurricanes, and 2.7 major hurricanes.


Remember there are several factors that go into hurricane forecasting.  Dr Gray and Colorado state noted ELNINO conditions developing by mid season which would increase shear over the Atlantic basin.  

The combination of a weak el Nino that should develop with higher than normal pressures over the eastern and central Atlantic can create strong low level easterlies and enhance shear. Additionally, a less active African tropical wave train is possible as a result of the disruption of the Asian subcontinent monsoon. These are all factors that contribute to the idea of decreased tropical activity for 2012. 

 While I agree that an ELNINO event would indeed cause a lackluster season; I am not ready to pull the trigger on that theory JUST YET!

The PDO or Pacific Decadal Oscillation is, in my opinion a factor in the performance of the ENSO.   I do believe the strength of the PDO will dictate the strength of the LA Nina V El Nino.  For example.  All winter long our PDO remained in a cool phase or NEGATIVE STATE.  Here's the Data for Nov , Dec, Jan , Feb, March: :  2011 -2.33 -1.79 2012** -1.38 -0.85 -1.05

Now here is the sea surface temp anomalies.  While a considerable warming has occurred in all 4 regions of the NINO, a leveling off has occurred between April and May.  Note the new march PDO index which actually has it turning more negative.  This would correspond to the leveling off of the warming over region 1,2,3. 

When it comes to Elnino's affecting the behavior of Hurricane seasons over the Atlantic, I typically look to regions 3.4  and 4 which If correspond to 1,2 and 3 will classify the state of ENSO as "sustained" or "Long Lasting" .  These charges while show a trend DO NOT support enough evidence of a FULL on ELNINO event by the summer of 2012 !

The depth of the ENSO regions aren't too awful.  However, you would want to see a display like this in the middle of March in order to have a FULL switch to ENSO conditions by June.  The anomalies are impressive in the 3,4 regions however, AGAIN depth is not fully there.  This does not support a "Long Lasting" ELNINO or switch to positive.

The forecast for NINO region 3.4 shows a consensus from .5 to -.2 through the summer with the EURO and UKMO being the most extreme favoring ELNINO conditions by Mid 2012 season.








So basing the ENSO state at somewhere from neutral to slightly above average I have come up with similarities between 2001,2006,1996,1994,1986, and 1968.  All years coming out of a LA nina event in winter to a neutral state by the summer months of the corresponding years.

     STORMS  HURRICANES




2001    15                    9




***92 DEATHS
***3 RETIRED

 STORMS  HURRICANES




2006    10                    5

** 5 DEATHS

 STORMS  HURRICANES




1996    13                    9

** 126 DEATHS

 STORMS  HURRICANES




1994    7                    3

** 1,175 DEATHS

 STORMS  HURRICANES




1986    6                    4

** 9 DEATHS

 STORMS  HURRICANES




1968    8                   4

** 0 DEATHS 




THE DATA splits between slightly above average (2001, 2006, and 1996) to below average in 94,86, and 68.  HOWEVER, the one thing to note is the impact over the SE coast and Florida along with atleast 1 system in the Gulf of Mexico.  

While the forecast may be low, the threat level for the US mainland is actually elevated to MODERATE this year!