Some changes to the weekend storm that are worth mentioning. In my last post I discussed the various model solutions with the GEM (Canadian Model) being the furthest west while the GFS had a coastal storm while the EURO had little phase and the furthest east solution.
Well, AGAIN we have multiple solutions to sort through.
The GFS has now shifted its focus furthest east while the EURO has come back further west along with the GEM.
On the left is the 18z GFS. This is being treated as the OUTLIER of the model solutions considering it has not lined up with the upper level maps correctly. The surface low develops way too fast and does not tuck back into the coast (which is the case when you have a 500mb trough becoming negatively tilted.
The Canadian on the left has a very strong low however, keeps the system offshore through Sunday night. The heaviest rains are from I95 east from Baltimore to NYC. The storm is then forecasted to pivot NW into southern New England as a closed off low intensifies bending the 500mb trough in a negative tilted position. This is something the GFS has not handled properly
Here's the EURO. (Remember, this kept the low WAY off shore however, has corrected further west). This track mimic's the Canadian as it bends back into central New England. There is even some suggestion of snows over 2000' over the Adirondacks and Berkshires.
It is noteworthy to report the operational models are much further east of their Ensemble members.
Below I have listed the various ENSEMBLE products of the models I have listed above. The EURO and Canadian both are the furthest west with a coastal storm riding along the jersey shore from Sunday afternoon - Monday Afternoon.
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