MIke Masco: Threat For Severe Weather Friday In The East

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**** FOLLOW MY TWITTER UPDATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND IF YOU ARE IN BALTIMORE KEEP IT TUNED TO ABC 2 WMAR-TV FOR WEATHER UPDATES.***


Friday will feature a tail end severe weather situation for many areas from NY - VA.

The storm prediction center in Norman, OK maintains their "Slight Risk" area for much of the I95 corridor.

Two areas to focus on during the afternoon will be an area from York Co PA to VA Beach (which we will call REGION 1 and an area from Allentown, PA to Scranton, PA.  The dynamics for severe weather will certainly be there however, we will find two different kind of parameters coming together during the afternoon.  Region 1 has the BEST lift, CAPE, and moisture while Region 2 features the best SHEAR associated with a passing shortwave towards the north.

As a prefrontal trough moves east it will continue to lead to height falls along both regions which will erupt storms after 4pm this afternoon.  Full heating of the day will break the CAP as multiple line segments of storms will fire up.

Region 1 will see higher shear values as a shortwave passes over central New England.  While storms will fire north of PA, the instability is not overly impressive, so the risk for widespread severe storms is not anticipated.. However, you may see a fairly strong storm with gusty winds.

***This is an area that needs to monitor their weather during the day***

Region 2 will have deeper instability aided by the higher DP values to the south (which will run 68-70° on average)  The best CAPE should occur in a region from Cherry Hill , NJ to Norfolk, VA (Cape values will hit a STRONG risk category ) as this will aid is vertically stacking storms well above 40K feet.

The lifted index is also best over Region 2 as it represents the fastest updraft growth and convective forcing once the Thunderstorms develop.










BOTH REGIONS ARE GENERALLY ANTICIPATED TO RECEIVE THE SAME IMPACTS.  NOT ONE AREA STANDS OUT AS THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING SEVERE STORMS