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While we are more then 5 days out until the next potential event for the Mid Atlantic and southern New England; there is a storm to watch! A piece of energy is expected to eject out of the Rockies Friday while a strong ridge is possible to setup over the west coast and a NEG NAO will try to form.
THE PROBLEM
Most models are not phasing the northern energy into the southern jet to form a coastal storm.
Why: The reason is complicated. First, there lacks a TRUE 50/50 low with NEG NAO setup. This will capture the storm and bring it north. Lets back up first. WE need this energy to slide south to interact with the southern jet stream. This can only be accomplished if a positive PNA setups up via a strong ridge over the west coast. The models are split on this! The GFS and EURO are showing a crushing low moving into the PACNW which will suppress the ridge- However, that could change with some timing fluctuations! I think that becomes the real X factor.
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| The GFS keeps the northern and southern jet streams separate which does not support a phased storm. However, there are two key features that are showing up that help to support a coast storm. A possible 50/50 low setup from the Thurs PM /FRI AM system and a developing -NAO |
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| The EURO has the same southern ONLY a stronger PACNW system which crushes the west coast ridge |
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| THE CANADIAN is a little whacky. Not sure if it is correctly handling the southern jet vortmax dipping into Mexico however, it does have a nice looking ridge setup. This east past ridge would force the pacnw system into west-central Canada allowing for a phase potential IF the southern jet is indeed further north. |
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