METEOROLOGIST MIKE MASCO: Mike Masco: Threat of Snow For The I95 Cities

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POST: 12:19PM EDT FEB 09,2012

REVISED 2:47PM EDT FEB 09, 2012 (SEE BOTTOM)

NEW UPDATE COMING: TONIGHT 11PM EDT FEB 09, 2012

There is a real threat for snow tomorrow night into Saturday morning. I use the word "REAL" because this winter is anything but REAL in terms of normal statistics. We achieved some warm records over January a nd Feburary which were suppose to be the coldest months of the season; keeping in mind the models continuously called for negative NAO's and blocking patterns that would support cold & snow!

Anyway, we have an event coming up tomorrow night - Saturday that has gotten my attention. It's one thing when we have a model run that shows snow but when you see a trend, then you know mom nature has a plan in action.

THE SETUP

A storm will develop over the Rockies by tonight and begin to push through the Mississippi Valley by tomorrow morning. Above I have attached the RPM model depiction of this event. IN white is the trough that will be moving through the Midwest tomorrow afternoon. As southern energy interacts with this trough a low will enhance along the arctic boundary and begin to push north. A low will then form over the NC/SC border and begin to strengthen as it pulls NNE.

THE Question (s)!

Does the interaction between the northern and southern jet phase together? Is it enough to bring the storm closer to the coast? Will it strengthen to the point it drags down very cold air to produce a MAJOR storm?

Yes, TOO many questions. The reason for the questions is mostly because we do not have a strong blocking feature which is a key to making these storms work out!

THE Solutions (s)!

SOLUTION 1: We do not have a phase. In this case we have a storm that yes, develops! However, moves off shore.

In that case.. We have a storm that will interact between warm air offshore and very cold arctic air that is moving in. As this happens we get a front that develops east of I95 from Annapolis, MD to New Haven, CT. Snow will develop along this front for a while bringing a 1-3" (locally 3") across the I 95 region.. Mostly East (along Garden State Pkwy in NJ).

SOLUTION 2: We have a partial phase. This bring the storm closest to the coast which snow will fall from MD - MA with CapeCOD, MA and Long island seeing a significant winter storm.

In this case we would expect a general 4" for the major cities with (6-12" expected with a FULL PHASE) from the GSP east in NJ, ROUTE 113 east in Delaware, Sagitos pkwy east in LONG ISLAND, and S & E of I 84 in CT.

MODEL SNOW PROJECTIONS AS OF 12Z

Nam model