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What a dilemma we are faced with. If you haven't heard yet.. A storm potential is possible by later this weekend that could effect several states. However, not one consensus has come together that can easily pinpoint what this storm will do. First, we are faced with the GFS. The GFS has placed this storm everywhere but Chicago with model runs that have come between a major storm to an out to sea track. Today, however, was the exception to that rule. The GFS has held onto some consistency between the 12z and 18z which both have a HUGE sub 990 low off or over Atlantic City, NJ. Then we go to the European which has held onto a consistent offshore southern Mid Atlantic snow event!
Consistency is KEY to a forecast however, what do you do when both models are going their own way while maintaining consistency? YOU WAIT!!! It's that simple.
The big headache the models are having is dealing with this cutoff low over the rockies WHICH is be part of our storm this upcoming weekend. With Cutoff lows the models have a hard time figuring out whether it will drop south or kick east or move slightly NW. This is the problem the models are having right now.... How far south is this system and will it be far enough north to get captured and phase with another piece of energy from the northern jet stream??
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| Plenty of moisture to the east of the system.. It will fire up thunderstorms out ahead of the system (could become severe) ! |
LETS RUN DOWN SOME MODELS...
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| The GFS.. This is the 18z Run coming after the 0z and 12z runs showing a fully phased system coming out of the south central US. Note the northern energy meeting the vort max over northern LA which will spawn a strong storm over the south eastern states. There is a quasi 50-50 block to the north which will pump up ridging over the western Atlantic which will allow the system to move North. What I will say about this model is how it is handling the cutoff low right now. The latest satellite imagery does have a potent closed off low over the 4 corner states which it has done well on however, the question remains to be seen.. Is it true it phases with the northern jet stream? |
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| The NAM only goes to 84 hours. This model comes close to a phase however, the northern jet kicks out a shortwave much quicker than the GFS does. This will NOT phase however, we will still have a potent and juicy southern storm moving ENE once it hits Atlanta. |
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| The EURO continues to hold onto the idea the cutoff low stay far south before getting picked up by the southern jet. By that time it is too late and the northern energy is progressing quickly NE. |
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| THE RPM model is better inside 2 days . I ran this model out to Saturday morning to see what it tries to do with the upper air pattern. It's similar to the NAM however, it does try to bend the thicknesses a bit over the east coast in more of a ridging fashion. Could there be more energy in the northern jet to fuel the weekend storm then what the EURO, GFS, and NAM are indicating? |
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| Finally, the CMC. NO phase.. However, does bring enough moisture north into colder air to bring DC snow. The timing on this model is much later ..More like Sunday Night into Monday. |
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| Finally, The JMA which is still south.. but does bring snow into DCA and BWI. DC and Baltimore. |
SO where are we.
We are left with the fact the GFS model is the ONLY model that has a SECS (all rain for the Major cities, Heavy wet snow N & W of I 80 and north of I84 in CT, and extreme winds on the coast).
The EURO, CMC, JMA, UKMET, and NOGAPS all have this system going offshore with the consensus bringing light snow as far north as Baltimore, MD.
What if?
What if the GFS is correct? I say this because there was a noticable trend north of the Euro this morning. It could be a wobble, a correction, or the true thing. If the GFS is correct.... This is the type of solution you would see in terms of snowfall.
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