Mike Masco: Thoughts on Weekend Snow Event

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I am ready to put out a first call map based on how the models have come around to show 1 general solution as we head into Sunday.  Keep in mind there is NOT one solution saying we have a system that has a strong phase which would moving the 8-12" area's into central PA ALA what the GFS was trying to sell us.  Climo with southern storms tells us that the coast will see a general 1-2" while the 95 cities (Baltimore, DC, Richmond) play between 2-4".  Outside of 95 you get snow and usually it's a few inches if not several inches depending on the strength of the storm.  Near I 81 it's always all snow accumulating rapidly with higher elevations over the Appalachian mountains.

THE MODELS ..

The Candian has continued it's southern slider idea.  What is interesting is the 535 thickness it brings in by Sunday night which will raise snow ratios above 10:1.  This would suggest moderate snows that will accumulate from DCA north to BWI and even York, PA. 

The Euro is a tad warmer with the thicknesses staying near 540 and upper air temps remaining well below freezing.  Accumulations are generally right in line with the Canadian only it is a tad faster.

THE GFS is now on 3 RUNS in a row of a more tamed solution coming in line with the CMC and EURO.  It does have a lot more moisture which brings accumulating snows into central NJ.

FORECASTING CHALLENGE:

WILL THE ACCUMULATING SNOWS MAKE IT INTO PHILADELPHIA AND NEW JERSEY?  STAY TUNED.  I HAVE NO TAKEN THAT INTO ACCOUNT IN MY SNOW MAP FOR VA/MD/DE