Mike Masco: First Call & Thoughts

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POST: 705PM EDT FEB 09,2012 

My thoughts are leaning more towards a storm that will move ENE once it develops off Cape Hatteras.  Again, there is little blocking available for this system which will make it hard for the storm to develop and be captured along the coast.  IN a case like that it would develop its own cold air source allowing for a MAJOR snowstorm.  This however, will NOT be the case.  

THE SETUP

A storm will develop off the North Carolina coastline.  As it moves NE the arctic front will be plowing through central Pennsylvania.  A baroclinic zone will setup from VA to NYC as the storm rides along that area.  We will see precip enhance falling as snow away from the immediate coastline while the coast will snow yet, most surface temps will remain above freezing.  As the cold air continues to push east the storm will move fast away from the area.  Then part two comes in.  

PART 1

TIMING: START: SATURDAY 1AM (BALTIMORE) 3AM (NYC) 5AM (BOSTON)

END: SATURDAY 11AM (BALTIMORE) 1PM (NYC) 7PM (BOSTON)

PART 2

As the arctic front moves east there will be plenty of atmospheric lift and moisture available which will allow for additional snow to fall.  In this situation we could see a quick 1-3" in many locations which is highly dependent on where the vort maxes setup.  My forecast call on that tomorrow. 

 HOW MUCH??