Mike Masco's Final Snow Call

This storm will come down to nowcasting and watching minor trends as it develops.  Let me stress how a 20 mile jog north will turn DC metro into a major storm event.
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Mike Masco: A split in the models to become a HUGE forecast challenge ahead.

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Here we are.. Friday at 1pm and still a few uncertainties in respect to the weekend storm threat Sunday AM - Sunday Night.

WHAT WE KNOW..

1.  This is not a phased system which will enable a storm track to climatologically favor the Mid Atlantic to see the most snow

2.  A nighttime event looks likely for Baltimore and Philadelphia which support accumulating snows

3.  The highest elevations over the Appalachian mountains will see the best snows with longer snow duration from Sunday early afternoon to Sunday Evening.

WHAT WE DO NOT KNOW..

1.  The Storms exact intensity and moisture field by Sunday afternoon 

2.  Exact track of the surface low as it interacts with the northern stream and 50/50 low setup.

THE MODELS..

We can officially rule out a full phased system from the equation as we progress into the weekend.  The model support is locked in that the northern vort max (shortwave) will get caught up in a very progressive northern jet stream and will consolidate with the quasi 50-50 low over SE Canada.  In this situation we deal with a low that will run out of the southern jet stream and try to move north as it intensifies and tries to turn the southern jet negativity tilted.  

500 MB MAP GFS 12z 

 We then focus on our cold air source.  There looks to be a 1025 MB HIGH (via the NAM) and 1023 MB HIGH (via the GFS) over central New England.  This will be key to keeping a wind direction NW or N during the duration of this event.  Intensity of this High will be critical to this event and how much snow will fall.  The 850 MB temps support snow however the 2M temps over the Delmarva and SNJ are borderline at best.

NOTE the HEIGHTS building over the storm.  This will ensure all snow from western MD into West Virgina and NW Virginia 

 The Track of the storm is interesting.  The RH field moistens the atmosphere up to NYC on the NAM while it suppresses it to SNJ on the GFS (With the European model siding with the GFS)

The European Ensembles are still pretty broad however the consensus brings the low from Nags Head to Cape Charles. 

Operations EURO INLINE with the GFS

MY THOUGHTS.

I feel we have a storm that will inch itself north during the course of Sunday.  A stronger storm will tilt the jet more negative which will bring more moisture north while A weaker storm will keep it south.  Evidence of that shows up between the NAM (997MB storm) while GFS (1000MB) once it moves off the coast.  

This is the WV imagery right now.  The southern cutoff is very strong but whats impressive is the amount of moisture ahead of the system that is advecting North as we speak. 

IR imagery shows this nicely.  The amount of moisture to be tapped into is not being played out as well as the GFS shows it.  

2ND CALL MAP OUT AT 5PM THIS EVENING !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Mike Masco: Thoughts on Weekend Snow Event

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I am ready to put out a first call map based on how the models have come around to show 1 general solution as we head into Sunday.  Keep in mind there is NOT one solution saying we have a system that has a strong phase which would moving the 8-12" area's into central PA ALA what the GFS was trying to sell us.  Climo with southern storms tells us that the coast will see a general 1-2" while the 95 cities (Baltimore, DC, Richmond) play between 2-4".  Outside of 95 you get snow and usually it's a few inches if not several inches depending on the strength of the storm.  Near I 81 it's always all snow accumulating rapidly with higher elevations over the Appalachian mountains.

THE MODELS ..

The Candian has continued it's southern slider idea.  What is interesting is the 535 thickness it brings in by Sunday night which will raise snow ratios above 10:1.  This would suggest moderate snows that will accumulate from DCA north to BWI and even York, PA. 

The Euro is a tad warmer with the thicknesses staying near 540 and upper air temps remaining well below freezing.  Accumulations are generally right in line with the Canadian only it is a tad faster.

THE GFS is now on 3 RUNS in a row of a more tamed solution coming in line with the CMC and EURO.  It does have a lot more moisture which brings accumulating snows into central NJ.

FORECASTING CHALLENGE:

WILL THE ACCUMULATING SNOWS MAKE IT INTO PHILADELPHIA AND NEW JERSEY?  STAY TUNED.  I HAVE NO TAKEN THAT INTO ACCOUNT IN MY SNOW MAP FOR VA/MD/DE

Mike Masco: A Storm or NOT A Storm That is the question!

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What a dilemma we are faced with.  If you haven't heard yet.. A storm potential is possible by later this weekend that could effect several states.  However, not one consensus has come together that can easily pinpoint what this storm will do.  First, we are faced with the GFS.  The GFS has placed this storm everywhere but Chicago with model runs that have come between a major storm to an out to sea track.  Today, however, was the exception to that rule.  The GFS has held onto some consistency between the 12z and 18z which both have a HUGE sub 990 low off or over Atlantic City, NJ.  Then we go to the European which has held onto a consistent offshore southern Mid Atlantic snow event! 

Consistency is KEY to a forecast however, what do you do when both models are going their own way while maintaining consistency?  YOU WAIT!!!  It's that simple.

The big headache the models are having is dealing with this cutoff low over the rockies WHICH is be part of our storm this upcoming weekend.  With Cutoff lows the models have a hard time figuring out whether it will drop south or kick east or move slightly NW.  This is the problem the models are having right now.... How far south is this system and will it be far enough north to get captured and phase with another piece of energy from the northern jet stream??

Plenty of moisture to the east of the system.. It will fire up thunderstorms out ahead of the system (could become severe) !

LETS RUN DOWN SOME MODELS... 

The GFS.. This is the 18z Run coming after the 0z and 12z runs showing a fully phased system coming out of the south central US.  Note the northern energy meeting the vort max over northern LA which will spawn a strong storm over the south eastern states.  There is a quasi 50-50 block to the north which will pump up ridging over the western Atlantic which will allow the system to move North.  What I will say about this model is how it is handling the cutoff low right now.  The latest satellite imagery does have a potent closed off low over the 4 corner states which it has done well on however, the question remains to be seen.. Is it true it phases with the northern jet stream?

The NAM only goes to 84 hours.  This model comes close to a phase however, the northern jet kicks out a shortwave much quicker than the GFS does.  This will NOT phase however, we will still have a potent and juicy southern storm moving ENE once it hits Atlanta.

The EURO continues to hold onto the idea the cutoff low stay far south before getting picked up by the southern jet.  By that time it is too late and the northern energy is progressing quickly NE.

THE RPM model is better inside 2 days .  I ran this model out to Saturday morning to see what it tries to do with the upper air pattern.  It's similar to the NAM however, it does try to bend the thicknesses a bit over the east coast in more of a ridging fashion.  Could there be more energy in the northern jet to fuel the weekend storm then what the EURO, GFS, and NAM are indicating?

Finally, the CMC.  NO phase.. However, does bring enough moisture north into colder air to bring DC snow.  The timing on this model is much later ..More like Sunday Night into Monday.

Finally, The JMA which is still south.. but does bring snow into DCA and BWI. DC and Baltimore.

SO where are we.  

We are left with the fact the GFS model is the ONLY model that has a SECS (all rain for the Major cities, Heavy wet snow N & W of I 80 and north of I84 in CT, and extreme winds on the coast). 

The EURO, CMC, JMA, UKMET, and NOGAPS all have this system going offshore with the consensus bringing light snow as far north as Baltimore, MD.  

What if?  

What if the GFS is correct?  I say this because there was a noticable trend north of the Euro this morning.  It could be a wobble, a correction, or the true thing.  If the GFS is correct.... This is the type of solution you would see in terms of snowfall.

Watching a Weekend Threat

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While we are more then 5 days out until the next potential event for the Mid Atlantic and southern New England; there is a storm to watch! A piece of energy is expected to eject out of the Rockies Friday while a strong ridge is possible to setup over the west coast and a NEG NAO will try to form.

THE PROBLEM
Most models are not phasing the northern energy into the southern jet to form a coastal storm.
Why: The reason is complicated.  First, there lacks a TRUE 50/50 low with NEG NAO setup.  This will capture the storm and bring it north.  Lets back up first.  WE need this energy to slide south to interact with the southern jet stream.  This can only be accomplished if a positive PNA setups up via a strong ridge over the west coast.  The models are split on this!  The GFS and EURO are showing a crushing low moving into the PACNW which will suppress the ridge- However, that could change with some timing fluctuations! I think that becomes the real X factor.

The GFS keeps the northern and southern jet streams separate which does not support a phased storm.  However, there are two key features that are showing up that help to support a coast storm.  A possible 50/50 low setup from the Thurs PM /FRI AM system and a developing -NAO 

The EURO has the same southern ONLY a stronger PACNW system which crushes the west coast ridge

THE CANADIAN is a little whacky.  Not sure if it is correctly handling the southern jet vortmax dipping into Mexico however, it does have a nice looking ridge setup.  This east past ridge would force the pacnw system into west-central Canada allowing for a phase potential IF the southern jet is indeed further north.  

Mike Masco: Final Call Snow Event Saturday Morning

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POST: 12PM EDT FEB 10,2012 

I am sticking close to my first call idea with a developing storm that will be just strong enough to produce heavy snow for areas along I 95 except away from the immediate shoreline.


One thing that I have come around to accept is that the 500mb trough bringing the cold air in will NOT be as positive as yesterday's models showed it would be.  Yes, it's still positive but it will NOT be enough to cause the storm to go due ENE away from the coast.  Development with this storm will be key to who will get over 2-3" in my last call maps below.  However, I do see enough lift for interior NJ, LI, CT, MA to see a quick accumulation for many.  

500 MB GFS MAP

THIS IS A RUNDOWN OF THE EVENT.

The cold air will be delayed some allowing for mostly rain to fall from Baltimore to Philadelphia on south and east.  From there the cold air will drain towards the storm as it begins to intensify.  Expect heavy snow to break out right near a coastal front that will setup over coastal NJ, DE, and Long Island.  Which by mid morning will pull north and focus the heaviest snows over Boston and Providence.  

There is still plenty of moisture left via the GFS going into Sunday afternoon also for a few spots over the higher terrain to see a quick coating.

SO HERE IS MY FINAL CALL:

Mike Masco: First Call & Thoughts

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POST: 705PM EDT FEB 09,2012 

My thoughts are leaning more towards a storm that will move ENE once it develops off Cape Hatteras.  Again, there is little blocking available for this system which will make it hard for the storm to develop and be captured along the coast.  IN a case like that it would develop its own cold air source allowing for a MAJOR snowstorm.  This however, will NOT be the case.  

THE SETUP

A storm will develop off the North Carolina coastline.  As it moves NE the arctic front will be plowing through central Pennsylvania.  A baroclinic zone will setup from VA to NYC as the storm rides along that area.  We will see precip enhance falling as snow away from the immediate coastline while the coast will snow yet, most surface temps will remain above freezing.  As the cold air continues to push east the storm will move fast away from the area.  Then part two comes in.  

PART 1

TIMING: START: SATURDAY 1AM (BALTIMORE) 3AM (NYC) 5AM (BOSTON)

END: SATURDAY 11AM (BALTIMORE) 1PM (NYC) 7PM (BOSTON)

PART 2

As the arctic front moves east there will be plenty of atmospheric lift and moisture available which will allow for additional snow to fall.  In this situation we could see a quick 1-3" in many locations which is highly dependent on where the vort maxes setup.  My forecast call on that tomorrow. 

 HOW MUCH??

 

Mike Masco: Threat of Snow For The I95 Cities

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POST: 12:19PM EDT FEB 09,2012 

REVISED 2:47PM EDT FEB 09, 2012 (SEE BOTTOM)

NEW UPDATE COMING: TONIGHT 11PM EDT FEB 09, 2012

There is a real threat for snow tomorrow night into Saturday morning.  I use the word "REAL" because this winter is anything but REAL in terms of normal statistics.  We achieved some warm records over January a nd Feburary which were suppose to be the coldest months of the season; keeping in mind the models continuously called for negative NAO's and blocking patterns that would support cold & snow! 

Anyway, we have an event coming up tomorrow night - Saturday that has gotten my attention.  It's one thing when we have a model run that shows snow but when you see a trend, then you know mom nature has a plan in action. 

THE SETUP

A storm will develop over the Rockies by tonight and begin to push through the Mississippi Valley by tomorrow morning.  Above I have attached the RPM model depiction of this event.  IN white is the trough that will be moving through the Midwest tomorrow afternoon.  As southern energy interacts with this trough a low will enhance along the arctic boundary and begin to push north.  A low will then form over the NC/SC border and begin to strengthen as it pulls NNE. 

THE Question (s)!

Does the interaction between the northern and southern jet phase together?  Is it enough to bring the storm closer to the coast? Will it strengthen to the point it drags down very cold air to produce a MAJOR storm? 

Yes, TOO many questions.  The reason for the questions is mostly because we do not have a strong blocking feature which is a key to making these storms work out! 

THE Solutions (s)!

SOLUTION 1:  We do not have a phase.  In this case we have a storm that yes, develops! However, moves off shore.

 In that case.. We have a storm that will interact between warm air offshore and very cold arctic air that is moving in.  As this happens we get a front that develops east of I95 from Annapolis, MD to New Haven, CT.  Snow will develop along this front for a while bringing a 1-3" (locally 3") across the I 95 region.. Mostly East (along Garden State Pkwy in NJ). 

SOLUTION 2:  We have a partial phase.  This bring the storm closest to the coast which snow will fall from MD - MA with CapeCOD, MA and Long island seeing a significant winter storm.

In this case we would expect a general 4" for the major cities with (6-12" expected with a FULL PHASE) from the GSP east in NJ, ROUTE 113 east in Delaware, Sagitos pkwy east in LONG ISLAND, and S & E of I 84 in CT. 


MODEL SNOW PROJECTIONS AS OF 12Z

Nam model 

GFS model 

RPM model 

NEW EUROPEAN MODEL HAS A FURTHER WEST LOOK TO IT.. SHOWS HEAVIEST QPF OVER NJ, NYC, LI, SE CT, CAPE CODE.
POTENTIAL 4"+