BY: Mike Masco
Twitter: https://twitter.com/#!/MikeMasco
The big talk today has been over the storm potential for tomorrow and the issuance of the HIGHRISK from the storm prediction center.
The image on the right is the latest STP or Significant Tornado Parameter. Anything over 1 suggests tornadoes nearing F2 status while anything over 6 guarantees a loaded atmosphere ready to produce long track tornadoes.
The problem tomorrow is the lack of convergence that is expected. The models have continued to show lack of areal coverage for convection going into tomorrow afternoon (aside from areas north, near the warm front).
Something I have been monitoring all afternoon is the RPM model runs simulating precipitation intensity going into Saturday. I tested this model on two supercells in Oklahoma and it nailed the cells down to 10 miles within their development. There has been little trend towards massive development of convection going into tomorrow (aside from areas near the warm front).
The possibility of a stronger CAP could be the reason behind this, as the dryline remains nearly stationary tomorrow. If the CAP holds beyond 0z or 8pm Saturday, there may not be many storms firing ahead of the dry line. If that is the case the threat for massive( F3+) long track tornadoes may diminish. If the CAP breaks due to linear forcing after dark we may have more linear storm segments(line segments) that would feature Massive Hail & 60-80MPH wind gusts.
HOWEVER, that is a big IF! IF the CAP breaks early storms will fire immediately due to diurnal heating of the day!
The 12 Z vs 18 Z GFS and NAM has expanded its convection coverage across Kansas and Nebraska.
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