Looking Ahead to Summer...ElNINO Influences Part 1: Temperatures

The last couple of months have been very interesting in respect to what has been happening in the central Pacific.  The region that experiences the warming/cooling of the equatorial Pacific has begun to transfer over to a WARMING phase opposed to the cold (LaNina) event we have dealt with all winter long.  The change has been some what abrupt with a very different look between the FEB SST display to what is happening right now.

Below is a comparison between the two states of the equatorial pacific.  Not only has the surface of the water warmed signficiently... The depth of the water continues to warm dramatically also.

The long range seasonal forecast models have 1 agreement.. We will enter a warm phase by the start of summer yet, the exact strength of this warming and whether this will become an official ELNINO event is yet to be determined.

A look at the 3.4 region via the EURO shows a consensus of .5 by the start of summer however by the middle and end of the summer the spread favors closer to +1.  This warming (3.4) region would guarantee a very deep layer of warm water for the 1.2 region which would sustain WARM CONDITIONS into the fall.

A look at the CFS shows something similar however, the consensus shifts to strengthening winds and a slower warming process through summer.  This would favor a LA NADA event.. 0-0.5 ... The abrupt warming in my opinion cannot be discredited so I will not take the CFS's solution fully.  The trend though is still there of continued warming of the ENSO region into the late spring/ early summer months.

SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

NOAA keeps track of events and averages them out over 50 plus years.  Now remember, this is taking just the ELNINO solution alone without other influences.  

Note the % average favoring BELOW normal temperatures through the period. 

As we move closer to June more variables will be added to the solution to generate a better idea on the summer trend.  Part 1 is provided to show you that a weakening LaNINA state going towards ELNINO conditions seldom equate to a very hot summer, but more of a cooler- seasonable pattern.