The Threat for Violent Storms Possible in The MidAtlantic Friday

The Risk for severe weather still looks likely for Friday.  

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MY LATEST FORECAST TONIGHT ON ABC 2 NEWS BALTIMORE ( 5, 6, AND 11PM)

 Here is the latest updated outlook from the Storm Prediction Center.  This whole event is dependent on how far a warm front makes it north. Some models say it can get to Central PA others say to the mason Dixon line.  Areas south of this warm front will be susceptible to strong winds, dangerous lightning, destructive hail, and even the threat of an isolated tornado.

Why is this threat real?  (Technical explanation)

The combination of strong heating caused by a summer sun angle and the power of an upper level low (cold air in the upper atmosphere) will create a dangerous mix in the atmosphere. Storms could become violent inside the warm sector on Friday evening.  If the storms remain Linear the threat for tornadoes will remain low.  However, storms out ahead of the cold front may turn discrete and supercells would form quickly.

The image on the left shows the probability for  supercells to form.  This parameter known as the Supercell Composite Parameter is a multiple component index that is meant to highlight the co-existence of ingredients favoring supercell thunderstorms. The SCP is formulated as follows:

SCP = (muCAPE / 1000 J/kg) * (ESRH / 50 m2/s2) * (EBWD / 10 m/s)

 **NOTE the % is over 50 % for MD , VA, WV, and PA.  SCP > 1 favor right-moving (cyclonic in northern hemisphere) supercells, while values of SCP < -1 favor left-moving (anticyclonic) supercells.

Will instability be there to ignite convection?

 Instability will have to be watched going into Fri.  Again, back to my point about the warm front and how far north it goes.  Sure, the dynamics are there however, if the instability is not we will not see much in the way of storm activity.  Where the warm sector is I feel the best risk of an isolated tornado will setup.

 The probability of a Lifted Index of -4 OR BETTER is 50% over MD and VA (where the best upper level dynamics will be situated).

The SREF also shows sufficient moisture in place to allow these storms to rapidly develop and sustain life going into the evening on Friday.  The % of DewPoint values over 65 is at 70% for MD , DE, and VA.

Summery:

The risk for severe storms remains fairly high for the I 95 Cities of Baltimore, DC, Roanoke going into Friday evening.  This event will be determined by how much instability setups over the Mid Atlantic caused by a slow morning warm front.  If MAX instability is established then the threat of Tornadoes comes to life.  Should minimal instability be in place at the time of the prefrontal trough passage the threat for thunder and a few severe storms will be in place.

The bottom line remains.  This event is still being forecasted however, at this point the threat for violent severe storms is real from Baltimore MD to Rocky Point, NC. 

I will have the latest on ABC 2 NEWS AT 5,6, AND 11 BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IF YOU LIVE IN THE BALTIMORE AREA.

IMPRESSIVE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS TOMORROW

THESE IMAGES ARE FROM THE RPM MODEL

PRECIPATABLE WATER INDEX OVER 1.5 = FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS WITH STORMS













LIFTED INDEX VALUES OVER -6

= STRONG INSTABILITY
The more negative the LI the more unstable the troposphere and the more buoyant the acceleration will be for rising parcels of air from the PBL.

 

CAPE:  3000J/KG OVER MASSACHUSETTS


=STRONG INSTABILITY
= TOWERING STORMS

FAVORS LARGE HAIL/WINDS OVER 70MPH






NAM TEXT SOUNDINGS
PHILADELPHIA MODEL:

                       Station ID: KPHL Lat:   39.86 Long:  -75.23                                                        
 NAM Model Run: 12Z MAY 28, 2012                                                                                            
                                                                                                                            
 Forecast Hours:    0hr    6hr   12hr   18hr   24hr   30hr   36hr   42hr   48hr   54hr   60hr   66hr   72hr   78hr   84hr   
 Sfc Prs(mb):    1015.7 1014.4 1012.3 1011.9 1012.2 1010.0 1008.1 1007.4 1008.2 1007.4 1006.6 1006.6 1009.0 1010.3 1012.1   
 Mean SLP (mb):  1016.5 1015.1 1013.0 1012.6 1012.9 1010.7 1008.8 1008.1 1008.9 1008.1 1007.3 1007.3 1009.8 1011.1 1012.8   
 2m agl Tmp (F):   70.8   86.4   82.1   72.3   75.7   83.0   76.2   71.1   74.5   84.9   77.4   67.7   66.7   72.5   67.4   
 2m agl Dewpt(F):  67.5   71.2   71.1   68.3   70.3   70.7   69.7   69.3   69.7   61.9   65.6   65.3   59.7   51.7   51.7   
 2m agl RH (%):      89     59     68     87     83     65     79     94     85     44     66     92     77     47     56   
 10m agl Dir:       276    253    207    221    212    213    202    234    305    227    208    217    349    355      3   
 10m agl Spd(kt):     3      7      9      9      9     11     11      6      3      7      7      5     10     11      6   
 6hr Precip (in):  0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.02   0.06   0.06   0.00   0.00   0.02   0.01   0.01   0.00   0.00   
 AccumPrecip(in):  0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.02   0.08   0.14   0.14   0.14   0.16   0.17   0.18   0.18   0.18   
 Sfc CAPE (J/kg): 100.2 2186.8 2270.8  909.4 1227.8 1957.9 1142.2 1234.4 1694.7  384.2 1040.8  782.2   64.8    0.0    0.0   
 Sfc CINH (J/kg):-245.2    0.0   -9.0 -182.7 -116.5    0.0  -20.0  -66.6  -22.4    0.0  -22.9 -151.4  -24.7   -3.7   -7.5   
 0-3km Hel(J/kg):  85.7   36.3  117.2  115.4   32.7   20.1   56.6   43.6  -13.0   13.0   62.0   69.6  192.9   65.9  109.0   
 Precip H20 (in):  1.57   1.60   1.44   1.31   1.47   1.56   1.64   1.76   1.16   0.91   1.12   1.22   1.11   0.76   0.60   
 Lifted Index(C):  -2.7   -8.3   -7.9   -6.0   -6.4   -4.1   -3.5   -4.5   -3.7    0.1   -2.0   -3.3   -2.6    5.3    9.8   
 700mb VV(-ub/s):   0.7   -0.5   -1.6   -0.5    4.1   -0.8    1.3    1.6    1.0   -2.1    1.8   -0.7   -0.5   -1.4   -0.4   
 Thk1000-500mb(m)5708.7 5724.4 5740.2 5733.5 5706.6 5710.7 5708.9 5689.8 5659.7 5660.5 5669.1 5658.4 5636.7 5641.0 5644.2   
 Thk1000-850mb(m)1403.7 1419.7 1426.7 1420.9 1414.8 1415.6 1409.7 1406.6 1403.9 1412.9 1414.0 1405.8 1384.2 1373.2 1372.3   
 Thk850-700mb(m):1627.7 1627.2 1634.7 1635.1 1625.5 1619.4 1620.2 1614.4 1605.9 1607.2 1610.6 1611.9 1607.1 1603.1 1601.4   
 SWEAT Index:     185.5  276.8  278.0  223.8  211.5  194.4  283.2  199.8   92.5  118.8  125.0  207.1  193.2  133.6   53.2   
 Total Totals Idx  49.4   53.2   53.3   51.4   51.4   46.0   47.2   47.3   40.8   42.8   43.9   47.3   49.2   38.6   30.3   
 Frz Hgt(ft amsl) 14229  14518  14352  14094  13641  13518  13680  12747  11601  11150  11474  11441  11403  13201  13474   
 0WetBlbHgt(amsl) 12119  11850  10810  10387  10998  11567  11766  12218   9674   9098   9998  10715  10008   8644   6391   
 Equil Prs (mb):    379    203    220    310    247    217    239    249    235    263    247    356   1009   1010   1012   
 Equil Hgt(amsl): 26032  40082  38334  30643  35741  38528  36330  35378  36478  34019  35313  27007     20     20     20   
 Hail Size(in):    0.09   0.32   0.88   1.44   0.78   0.37   0.21   0.07   0.71   0.51   0.62   0.52   0.31   0.00   0.00   
 Conv Wind Gust:   46.3   52.6   56.3   55.1   51.5   52.2   47.8   47.1   50.5   59.7   56.7   53.7   45.7   57.8   58.5   
 Showalter Index:  -1.3   -3.8   -4.2   -2.6   -2.3    0.0   -1.1   -0.8    5.0    3.4    2.8    0.9   -0.9    6.3   11.8   
 Cap Strength(C):   3.1    0.0    0.0    7.2    4.0    0.0    0.0    4.0    3.0    0.0    0.0    6.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9   
 Storm Dir (deg):     4    352    333    264    260    249    263    291    320    297    294    285    302    315    329   
 Storm Spd (kts):    11      8      9      9     10     13     14     13     13     13     13     15     18     18     14   
 2m HeatIndex(F):    71     92     86     72     76     87     76     71     74     85     77     68     67     72     67   
 2m WindChill(F):    71     86     82     72     76     83     76     71     74     85     77     68     67     72     67   

HARTFORD/ WESTERN MA MODEL:

            Station ID: KCEF Lat:   42.20 Long:  -72.53                                                        
 NAM Model Run: 12Z MAY 28, 2012                                                                                            
                                                                                                                            
 Forecast Hours:    0hr    6hr   12hr   18hr   24hr   30hr   36hr   42hr   48hr   54hr   60hr   66hr   72hr   78hr   84hr   
 Sfc Prs(mb):    1006.9 1005.4 1004.1 1004.7 1003.2  999.7  998.9  998.5  999.0  997.7  998.3  998.0 1000.1 1000.5 1004.6   
 Mean SLP (mb):  1015.7 1013.9 1012.6 1013.6 1012.1 1008.0 1007.3 1007.2 1007.7 1006.3 1006.9 1006.7 1008.9 1009.3 1013.3   
 2m agl Tmp (F):   68.6   79.7   73.3   63.0   65.7   86.0   75.4   68.0   69.7   79.1   70.4   63.2   61.5   68.3   60.0   
 2m agl Dewpt(F):  63.1   67.1   67.3   62.3   64.2   68.8   68.3   67.1   65.5   59.1   60.8   59.2   54.1   45.8   42.3   
 2m agl RH (%):      82     64     81     98     95     55     78     97     86     49     71     86     76     43     51   
 10m agl Dir:        37    163    145    108    213    209    220    235     70    236    228    270    322    313    345   
 10m agl Spd(kt):     1      3      8      8      4     11      8      5      2     11      5      1     10     14      9   
 6hr Precip (in):  0.00   0.00   0.00   0.13   0.08   0.01   0.03   0.08   0.19   0.01   0.08   0.01   0.04   0.00   0.00   
 AccumPrecip(in):  0.00   0.00   0.00   0.13   0.21   0.22   0.24   0.32   0.51   0.53   0.60   0.62   0.66   0.66   0.66   
 Sfc CAPE (J/kg):  86.3 1383.1 2001.8  113.3  197.4 1555.7 1532.1  569.1  492.6  322.3  862.6  300.1    0.0    1.2    0.0   
 Sfc CINH (J/kg):-274.2    0.0  -33.5  -21.8 -379.6   -0.8  -14.4  -54.8  -10.4   -0.9   -9.3 -134.3    0.0   -3.7   -7.5   
 0-3km Hel(J/kg): 150.4  129.2  398.0  212.5   96.6   53.3   79.5   62.0 -105.1   83.3  151.8  221.3  189.0  131.6   38.9   
 Precip H20 (in):  1.33   1.35   1.48   1.68   1.51   1.43   1.50   1.69   0.91   0.96   1.10   1.21   0.94   0.57   0.38   
 Lifted Index(C):  -3.8   -5.0   -7.1   -6.5   -4.6   -5.7   -4.8   -3.2    0.5    0.1   -0.9   -2.0    2.6    9.2   13.3   
 700mb VV(-ub/s):   0.4   -0.9   -0.8   -1.4   -2.7   -1.4    3.9    6.7   -3.7   -1.7   -1.0    3.2    0.1    0.6   -2.0   
 Thk1000-500mb(m)5679.2 5700.1 5716.0 5697.6 5692.3 5723.5 5706.4 5671.4 5635.8 5636.3 5631.9 5614.1 5594.8 5585.1 5576.1   
 Thk1000-850mb(m)1392.6 1405.6 1411.2 1404.4 1408.1 1421.3 1410.9 1397.3 1388.6 1402.0 1396.8 1389.9 1366.5 1362.8 1355.5   
 Thk850-700mb(m):1622.2 1628.0 1632.4 1623.7 1622.3 1626.8 1623.8 1610.1 1600.2 1598.0 1600.5 1601.2 1592.8 1579.3 1576.7   
 SWEAT Index:     176.0  178.4  358.6  337.6  246.7  268.2  209.5  223.4   87.9  177.6  176.6  272.9  168.0  138.3  103.1   
 Total Totals Idx  49.4   49.2   55.0   53.6   50.9   48.1   48.0   46.2   35.5   46.2   46.7   50.7   42.9   34.8   25.9   
 Frz Hgt(ft amsl) 13594  13638  13827  13420  12880  13656  13280  12320  11257  10447  10699  10591  10623  11587  11918   
 0WetBlbHgt(amsl) 11183  11405  11579  12031  11792  11451  11885  11978   8853   9412  10047  10448   9880   7224   5369   
 Equil Prs (mb):    455    243    273   1005    518    206    240    304    323    322    460    530   1000   1000   1005   
 Equil Hgt(amsl): 21403  35998  33438    246  18116  39467  36142  30782  29255  29225  20746  17140    246    246    246   
 Hail Size(in):    0.60   0.63   0.55   0.28   0.36   0.60   0.35   0.28   0.41   0.36   0.55   0.52   0.00   0.00   0.00   
 Conv Wind Gust:   44.9   53.2   50.4   50.7   52.2   57.8   50.3   45.0   50.6   58.4   54.6   54.0   45.7   59.1   57.7   
 Showalter Index:  -0.6   -0.8   -5.5   -4.9   -2.3   -0.6   -0.6   -0.3    8.3    1.3    1.1   -1.2    4.0    9.6   15.2   
 Cap Strength(C):   4.4    1.2    4.7 -999.9    6.9    0.0    0.0    3.4    0.0    0.0    0.0    6.1 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9   
 Storm Dir (deg):   341    325    330    307    285    273    269    269    304    297    294    280    289    303    338   
 Storm Spd (kts):    15     16     17     15     17     16     18     18     21     23     23     25     26     27     22   
 2m HeatIndex(F):    69     80     73     63     66     90     75     68     70     79     70     63     61     68     60   
 2m WindChill(F):    69     80     73     63     66     86     75     68     70     79     70     63     61     68     60   
                                                                      

Mike Masco: Hurricane 2012 Outlook

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he official start to the 2012 hurricane season is a little over a month away.  Predictions for Dr Gray , Accuweather, and other private sector companies have already started to come out.  The general consensus shows a lackluster season with BELOW AVERAGE expectations by the end of the season.

* Colorado State, which forecast 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes and two major hurricanes
* WeatherBell, which forecast 9-12 named storms, 4-6 hurricanes, and 2-3 major hurricanes

So what is AVERAGE ?
Average is 12.1 named storms, 6.4 hurricanes, and 2.7 major hurricanes.

Remember there are several factors that go into hurricane forecasting.  Dr Gray and Colorado state noted ELNINO conditions developing by mid season which would increase shear over the Atlantic basin.  

The combination of a weak el Nino that should develop with higher than normal pressures over the eastern and central Atlantic can create strong low level easterlies and enhance shear. Additionally, a less active African tropical wave train is possible as a result of the disruption of the Asian subcontinent monsoon. These are all factors that contribute to the idea of decreased tropical activity for 2012.  

Here is latest anomonlies for MAY.  Note ENSO region 1&2 being above normal while 3, 3.4, and 4 showing nothing "out of the ordinary" in terms of dramatic warming or cooling.

The PDO or Pacific Decadal Oscillation is, in my opinion a factor in the performance of the ENSO.   I do believe the strength of the PDO will dictate the strength of the LA Nina V El Nino.  For example.  All winter long our PDO remained in a cool phase or NEGATIVE STATE.  Here's the Data for Nov , Dec, Jan , Feb, March: :  2011 -2.33 -1.79 2012** -1.38 -0.85 -1.05

Now here is the sea surface temp anomalies.  While a considerable warming has occurred in all 4 regions of the NINO, a leveling off has occurred between April and May.  Note the new march PDO index which actually has it turning more negative.  This would correspond to the leveling off of the warming over region 1,2,3.  

When it comes to Elnino's affecting the behavior of Hurricane seasons over the Atlantic, I typically look to regions 3.4  and 4 which If correspond to 1,2 and 3 will classify the state of ENSO as "sustained" or "Long Lasting" .  These charges while show a trend DO NOT support enough evidence of a FULL on ELNINO event by the summer of 2012 ! 

The depth of the ENSO regions show moderate warming in the 100m depth of region 3.4 which could speed up the trend towards EL nino conditions however, it hasn't been a consistent and even warming process through spring.  The saying " Too little Too Late" can apply for EL nino to have a huge impact on the amount of storms for this year.

THE MODELS

The spread of models suggest neutral conditions through August with a trend towards ELNINO conditions going into Fall.  This suggests a season that could end early.

FACTORS LOOKED AT:
ENSO CONDITIONS, EARLY START TO THE SEASON, NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN, WARM WATER SURROUNDING THE CONTINENTAL US

So basing the ENSO state at somewhere from neutral to slightly above average I have come up with similarities between 2001,2006,1996,1994,1986, and 1968.  All years coming out of a LA nina event in winter to a neutral state by the summer months of the corresponding years.

     STORMS  HURRICANES




2001    15                    9




***92 DEATHS
***3 RETIRED 

 STORMS  HURRICANES




2006    10                    5

** 5 DEATHS 

 STORMS  HURRICANES 




1996    13                    9

** 126 DEATHS 

 STORMS  HURRICANES 




1994    7                    3

** 1,175 DEATHS 

 STORMS  HURRICANES 




1986    6                    4

** 9 DEATHS 

 STORMS  HURRICANES 




1968    8                   4

** 0 DEATHS 




THE DATA splits between slightly above average (2001, 2006, and 1996) to below average in 94,86, and 68.  HOWEVER, the one thing to note is the impact over the SE coast and Florida along with atleast 1 system in the Gulf of Mexico.  

While the forecast may be low, the threat level for the US mainland is actually elevated to MODERATE this year!  










                
                               STORMS       HURRICANES               MAJOR


AVERAGE     12.1             6.4                2.7


PREDICTION  14              5                    0




I feel we could see 14 named storms INCLUDING ALBERTO with at least 5 becoming hurricanes.  I do not see 1 major storm unless one is able to get into the Gulf Of Mexico.  I feel this is the year of Tropical Storms that will dump copious amounts of rain over the east coast with several storms developing off deep troughs setup on the east coast.  I also believe there is a good shot of at least one tropical storm affecting the Mid Atlantic from Delaware to Virginia. 

Severe Weather Potential: Southern New England Under the Gun Today

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Today will be an active severe weather day for much of Interior Southern New England.
The Storm prediction center in Norman Oklahoma has placed all of Eastern NY, Western Ma, NW CT, VT, and NH under a RISK area for strong to severe storms.

The model guidance from the 00z and 06z runs of the NAM , GFS, RAP, and RPM all show the liklihood of a volatile atmosphere going into 22z or 5pm this afternoon.

This is one particular sounding for Western Massachusetts via the 0z NAM. GENERALLY SPEAKING WE HAVE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE GOING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

CAPE:                 1700J/KG
LI:                           -4.2
SWEAT INDEX:     315
SHOWALTER:       -1.7
HELICITY              182
TOTAL TOTALS:    52

BELOW I HAVE LISTED HOW THESE NUMBERS FIT INTO EACH SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETER WE FOLLOW.  G

COURTESY OF METEOROLOGIST JEFF HABY AT THEWEATHERPREDICTION.COM

CAPE

1 - 1,500	Positive
1,500 - 2,500	Large
2,500+	Extreme

HELICITY

150-300	Possible supercell
300-400	Supercells favorable
400+	Tornadic possible

Showalter Index greater than 0: Stable, but weak with convection possible for SI = 1-2 if strong lifting is present.
Showalter Index between 0 and -3: Moderately unstable.
Showalter Index between -4 and -6: Very Unstable.
Showalter Index between less than -6: Extremely Unstable.

TOTAL TOTALS <44 Convection not likely 44-50 Likely thunderstorms 51-52 Isolated severe storms 53-56 Widely scattered severe >56 Scattered severe storms

SPEED SHEAR 0-3 Weak 4-5 Moderate 6-8 Large 8+ Severe

K INDEX 15-25 Small convective potential 26-39 Moderate convective potential 40+ High convective potential

CAPE 1 - 1,500 Positive 1,500 - 2,500 Large 2,500+ Extreme

SWEAT 150-300 Slight severe 300-400 Severe possible 400+ Tornadic possible

SR HELICITY 150-300 Possible supercell 300-400 Supercells favorable 400+ Tornadic possible

LIFTED INDEX / SWI -1 to -4 Marginal instability -4 to -7 Large instability -8 or less Extreme instability

BRN <45 Supercells favorable <10 Too sheared teens Optimum

EHI

EHI >1	Supercells likely
1 to 5	F2, F3 tornadoes possible
5+	F4, F5 tornadoes possible

Now, there is the threat of a few isolated tornadoes this afternoon should all go to plan.

This is a look at the winds from the surface to high aloft.  We do have slight speed and directional shear going on with a south wind at 10MPH while a W/SW wind will be increasing due to the trough's interaction.

The winds between heights become unidirectional which may keep the storms moving and forming multiple cells into line segments.












HERE IS THE GRAPHICS FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER.  REMEMBER IF THREATENING WEATHER DOES OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON, KEEP IT TUNED INTO YOUR LOCAL ABC STATION.



 TORNADO THREAT PROBABILITY















WIND THREAT PROBABILITY


HAIL THREAT PROBABILITY 

Winter 2012-2013: A Preview Of What's Ahead.

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While the summer and hurricane forecast is still being looking into for the 2012 season, some models are starting to sniff out the details of what the Winter of 2012-2013 has in store.

The one, long range model that has my attention and has since February is the JAMSTEC.

The JAMSTEC from the Japanese Meteorological center has continued to trend towards a very cold USA and Europe.  This particular model has done quite well with the March heat in the eastern US , an overal MILD 2012 winter, and several past year forecast temps.



The ABOVE IMAGE is the 27 member ensemble of surface temps for Dec, Jan, and FEB of 2012-2013.

The sea surface temps show a breakdown of the strong, COLD PDO signature in the pacific which will help in relaxing super troughs over the west coast The model also indicates EL nino conditions in the pacific through Feb, which has been trending that way over the last couple of months.








The model "jives" with the CMC's ELNINO prediction of Neutral conditions going into the Fall which supports cooler than normal temps over the US.








Noaa's CFS also supports such and idea with more ridging over the western/ Rockiest and cooler than normal over the Eastern US.




One year that I am watching is the 2002-2003 analog.  The winter of 2002 had 3.5" at Central Park (Due to a LA NINA YEAR, SIMILAR TO OUR WINTER OF 2011-2012)... While the following year saw 49.3" ... The average is less than 30" at Central Park, NY.

The similarities of the 2002-2003 winter and this upcoming winter are a weakening COLD PDO signature ALONG with neutral ENSO conditions.  Both are significant! 

PRECIP ANOMALY FOR THE WINTER OF 2002-2003

TEMP ANOMALY (BOTTOM) FOR THAT WINTER.

Years To Look at: Predicting The 2012 Hurricane Season

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The official start to the 2012 hurricane season is a little over a month away.  Predictions for Dr Gray , Accuweather, and other private sector companies have already started to come out.  The general consensus shows a lackluster season with BELOW AVERAGE expectations by the end of the season.

* Colorado State, which forecast 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes and two major hurricanes
* WeatherBell, which forecast 9-12 named storms, 4-6 hurricanes, and 2-3 major hurricanes

So what is AVERAGE ?
Average is 12.1 named storms, 6.4 hurricanes, and 2.7 major hurricanes.


Remember there are several factors that go into hurricane forecasting.  Dr Gray and Colorado state noted ELNINO conditions developing by mid season which would increase shear over the Atlantic basin.  

The combination of a weak el Nino that should develop with higher than normal pressures over the eastern and central Atlantic can create strong low level easterlies and enhance shear. Additionally, a less active African tropical wave train is possible as a result of the disruption of the Asian subcontinent monsoon. These are all factors that contribute to the idea of decreased tropical activity for 2012. 

 While I agree that an ELNINO event would indeed cause a lackluster season; I am not ready to pull the trigger on that theory JUST YET!

The PDO or Pacific Decadal Oscillation is, in my opinion a factor in the performance of the ENSO.   I do believe the strength of the PDO will dictate the strength of the LA Nina V El Nino.  For example.  All winter long our PDO remained in a cool phase or NEGATIVE STATE.  Here's the Data for Nov , Dec, Jan , Feb, March: :  2011 -2.33 -1.79 2012** -1.38 -0.85 -1.05

Now here is the sea surface temp anomalies.  While a considerable warming has occurred in all 4 regions of the NINO, a leveling off has occurred between April and May.  Note the new march PDO index which actually has it turning more negative.  This would correspond to the leveling off of the warming over region 1,2,3. 

When it comes to Elnino's affecting the behavior of Hurricane seasons over the Atlantic, I typically look to regions 3.4  and 4 which If correspond to 1,2 and 3 will classify the state of ENSO as "sustained" or "Long Lasting" .  These charges while show a trend DO NOT support enough evidence of a FULL on ELNINO event by the summer of 2012 !

The depth of the ENSO regions aren't too awful.  However, you would want to see a display like this in the middle of March in order to have a FULL switch to ENSO conditions by June.  The anomalies are impressive in the 3,4 regions however, AGAIN depth is not fully there.  This does not support a "Long Lasting" ELNINO or switch to positive.

The forecast for NINO region 3.4 shows a consensus from .5 to -.2 through the summer with the EURO and UKMO being the most extreme favoring ELNINO conditions by Mid 2012 season.








So basing the ENSO state at somewhere from neutral to slightly above average I have come up with similarities between 2001,2006,1996,1994,1986, and 1968.  All years coming out of a LA nina event in winter to a neutral state by the summer months of the corresponding years.

     STORMS  HURRICANES




2001    15                    9




***92 DEATHS
***3 RETIRED

 STORMS  HURRICANES




2006    10                    5

** 5 DEATHS

 STORMS  HURRICANES




1996    13                    9

** 126 DEATHS

 STORMS  HURRICANES




1994    7                    3

** 1,175 DEATHS

 STORMS  HURRICANES




1986    6                    4

** 9 DEATHS

 STORMS  HURRICANES




1968    8                   4

** 0 DEATHS 




THE DATA splits between slightly above average (2001, 2006, and 1996) to below average in 94,86, and 68.  HOWEVER, the one thing to note is the impact over the SE coast and Florida along with atleast 1 system in the Gulf of Mexico.  

While the forecast may be low, the threat level for the US mainland is actually elevated to MODERATE this year! 

MIke Masco: Threat For Severe Weather Friday In The East

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**** FOLLOW MY TWITTER UPDATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND IF YOU ARE IN BALTIMORE KEEP IT TUNED TO ABC 2 WMAR-TV FOR WEATHER UPDATES.***


Friday will feature a tail end severe weather situation for many areas from NY - VA.

The storm prediction center in Norman, OK maintains their "Slight Risk" area for much of the I95 corridor.

Two areas to focus on during the afternoon will be an area from York Co PA to VA Beach (which we will call REGION 1 and an area from Allentown, PA to Scranton, PA.  The dynamics for severe weather will certainly be there however, we will find two different kind of parameters coming together during the afternoon.  Region 1 has the BEST lift, CAPE, and moisture while Region 2 features the best SHEAR associated with a passing shortwave towards the north.

As a prefrontal trough moves east it will continue to lead to height falls along both regions which will erupt storms after 4pm this afternoon.  Full heating of the day will break the CAP as multiple line segments of storms will fire up.

Region 1 will see higher shear values as a shortwave passes over central New England.  While storms will fire north of PA, the instability is not overly impressive, so the risk for widespread severe storms is not anticipated.. However, you may see a fairly strong storm with gusty winds.

***This is an area that needs to monitor their weather during the day***

Region 2 will have deeper instability aided by the higher DP values to the south (which will run 68-70° on average)  The best CAPE should occur in a region from Cherry Hill , NJ to Norfolk, VA (Cape values will hit a STRONG risk category ) as this will aid is vertically stacking storms well above 40K feet.

The lifted index is also best over Region 2 as it represents the fastest updraft growth and convective forcing once the Thunderstorms develop.










BOTH REGIONS ARE GENERALLY ANTICIPATED TO RECEIVE THE SAME IMPACTS.  NOT ONE AREA STANDS OUT AS THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING SEVERE STORMS

Friday's Threat For Severe Storms

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Friday will be another interesting day across the Mid Atlantic as another impulse of energy will drop out of Canada, raising heights and triggering a scattered late day severe thunderstorms.

The Day 2 SPC forecast has placed Philadelphia Baltimore DC Scranton NYC and Lancaster PA (to name a few big cities) under the slight risk category for severe weather.  While the wording is "slight" think elevated risk or higher than normal potential.

Here is the Day 2 Prediction via SPC. I will show my risk area in a map below.

The area is not surprisingly ripe for severe considering it has been on the warm sector of the stubborn stationary front that has divided the east between summer like warmth to late fall like temperatures.  Since we are more than 24 hours out I will headline the SREF model showing the probabilities to some of our severe weather parameters.

The first image to show you is the probability of having sufficient moisture to aid in the instability process for creating these storms.  The SREF is almost at 100% showing DP or Dewpoint values of greater than 55% which would be enough to support thunderstorms.  I however, ran the model at greater than 65 to see if we could have an environment conducive for any storm to turn severe storms.  The model does depict a 50/50 split of DP values over 65 away from the coast stretching from Cecil Co MD to Rockland CO NY.

The lifted index parameter per the SREF shows a 90% likelihood of greater than a L. I. Value of -2 while a 70% prob shows up for a L. I Value of greater than -4.  Anything of -2 will create enough lift to pop a few storms ... while a -4 will allow for the strongest updraft leading to multiple severe storms.

Finally, the CAPE value on SREF shows a 70% likelihood of CAPE values in the risk area hitting greater than 1000J/KG.  This would be ideal for strong to severe thunderstorms.


















Any windshear is anticipated to be situated over extreme NNJ, NEPA, and SENY where values show a 40% likelihood of >40KTS.  So any tornado threat will be slightly possible over this region.


HERE IS MY RISK AREA.  NOTE THE ORANGE OUTLINED AREA.  THIS IS WHERE I THINK THE BEST SHOT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE WHILE THE YELLOW HIGHLIGHTS THE RISK REGION.

YELLOW= STRONG STORMS ORANGE= SEVERE STORMS

Severe Storms Possible In The East

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman OK has expanded the RISK area for severe storms over Baltimore and DC Metro.

Surface analysis this morning shows a cold front draped across the state of Maryland.  At 10AM BelAir reported a temperature of 54 while the southern tip of the state (bullrun) showed a reading of 70 degrees.

This separation between the cool stable air mass to the unstable one to the south will be the dividing line for severe storms this afternoon.

The RPM lifted index parameter shows the best lift will be found over Deep Creek to Pax river throughout the afternoon. A look at the CAPE shows values only hitting 200 J/kg during the afternoon which indicates any storm that develops will have a very tough time becoming vertically stacked (producing severe storms)

My outlook for severe weather will focus west of I95 over Allegheny county through Northern WV, and VA.  PA and OH will also see a line of storms come through later in the evening going into the overnight.