Keeping an eye on a few things Today that will dictate when tomorrow will bring in terms of severe weather.
First is a warm frontal boundary that essentially will act as a "Dry Line" by later tonight. As the heat pump (area of high pressure situated over DCA moves ESE the winds on the back side will begin to switch towards the WSW and will advect moisture northward. DP's will stay in the 60's from Philly on South and rise into the lower 70's while, NYC , Hartford, Boston, Springfield, and Albany will settle into the 50's today but will rise overnight tonight into tomorrow towards the middle and upper 60's. We have to watch and see how fast the moisture can move in and mesh with sunshine tomorrow afternoon. THE 4KM RPM model shows sunshine from BWI right to HFD and BOS with DP's ranging from 60-65°. As the trough with associated warm front moves east bound we will see the winds aloft begin to increase with strong vertical shear developing by Wed AM. The threat for strong winds with these factors will certaintly be there (mostly from Philadelphia on north) where the best Mid level lapse rates will be achieved.
The soundings continue to show modestly severe potential during tomorrow afternoon mostly after 12z.
Philadelphia:
CAPE POTENTIAL LIFTED INDEX SWEAT
2062.2 1511.1 -4.6 -4.1 212.2 226.6
NYC:
993.1 1060.8 -4.1 -3.3 214.3 234.8
TRENTON: 1844.7 1540.5 -4.4 -3.9 204.2 233.9
ALBANY: 1450.0 1688.6 -4.9 -3.2 370.3 354.5
NOTE the Albany sounding has the best potential... This is mostly because of the colder air aloft. The further south pointswill be closest to the upper ridge with warmer temperatures aloft. However, any storm that does develop in this environment (south of Philadelphia) has the potential to go super cellular in nature given the CAPE and lift values
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