INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONG FOR STORMS TODAY

Looking over the soundings this morning and there seems to be consistancy in most severe weather parameters.  In comparison to the 12z run yesterday and the overnight 00z it appears we will see better lift and  stronger CAPE.  This stronger buoyancy at the LFC should create a good potential for any storm that develops to pack winds over 60 with some down drafts and large hail.  In fact already this morning we saw pea to nickle sized hail associated with a low level jet over central NY.  Doppler radar algorithms showED golf ball hail potential with some of those storms

BELOW IS A LOOK AT THE LIFTED INDEX FROM SREF.  SREF and NAM show the best lift nearing -10 for Philadelphia, Baltimore, and DC while closer to the coast where the marine layer should hang tough will prevent storms to go severe.



CAPE: POTENTIAL OF 3000 PLUS JOULS PER KG : HIGH OVER INTERIOR I 95





AS FAR AS SHEAR IS CONCERNED .. THE BULK RICHARDSON NUMBER I USE SHOWS MARGINAL SHEAR SOUTH OF THE POCONO'S WHILE UPSTATE NEW YORK WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF WIND DAMAGE AS IT WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE JET.  THE BEST CHANCE OF 50 KT WINDS WILL REMAIN CLOSEST TO THE COLD FRONT AND LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING WHEN THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE LOST.