The Storm Prediction Center has pretty strong wording out for the southern Plains and western Tennessean valley today into tonight. From what I can see.. We are looking at a strengthening area of low pressure over the rockies that will continue to enhance what we call a Low Level Jet Stream. We look at multiple jetstreams .. One at the highest levels 200mb or 10,000 ft up and a lower level jet stream occurs around 1000' to 1500'.
The low level jet will advect warm moist air from Eastern Tx through the MS Valley and pull it north into the eastern flank of the storm. There will be a dry line formation somewhere over OK, North East Texas, and Western AR which will create enough lift to produce the formation of super cell thunderstorms. I anticipate seeing those storm interact with near 50kt of shear and the formation of Tornadoes occuring rather abruptly. There is a cold pocket of air aloft that will aid in the formation of Large Hail in addition to the Tornado threat.
Below is a look at the CAPE, LI, and BULK Shear that is coming together for this outbreak.
The threat for MAJOR weather will shift into the lower TN valley, Mid Mississippi Valley, and eventually South East by Saturday!
